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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 1618 - Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd. - H Shares

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -30.54%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 44.82%
1-Year Price Return* -36.43%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$1.41
52-Week Range HK$1.3 – HK$3.17
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$455.38B HK$552.02B
Net income Reported net income HK$1.32B HK$6.75B
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$839.49B HK$808.02B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$155.76B HK$153.04B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 0.29% 1.22%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.5424x 0.6832x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 5.3895x 5.2797x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 0.85% 4.41%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$455.38B
Prior annual revenue HK$552.02B
EBIT HK$8.66B
Tax rate 25.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$6.50B
Forecast start-growth basis -10.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$6.50B
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$4.57B
Less: capital expenditure -HK$6.28B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$35.60B
Current unlevered FCFF HK$40.38B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -10.00% HK$5.85B HK$4.11B -HK$5.65B HK$32.04B HK$36.35B HK$35.45B
2 -6.88% HK$5.45B HK$3.83B -HK$4.90B HK$29.83B HK$34.21B HK$31.75B
3 -3.75% HK$5.24B HK$3.68B -HK$4.37B HK$28.72B HK$33.27B HK$29.38B
4 -0.63% HK$5.21B HK$3.66B -HK$4.00B HK$28.54B HK$33.40B HK$28.07B
5 2.50% HK$5.34B HK$3.75B -HK$3.75B HK$29.25B HK$34.59B HK$27.66B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.05
Cost of equity 10.47%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.19%
WACC 5.09%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$1,366.80B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 125.73x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 87.50%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$152.31B
Present value of terminal value HK$1,066.15B
Indicated enterprise value HK$1,218.46B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$1,218.46B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$80.52B
Add: cash and equivalents HK$77.77B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$27.80B
Indicated common equity value HK$1,187.91B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 660,884,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$1.41
DCF indicative value per share HK$1.80
Indicative value vs. market price 27.48%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:53:49.910662 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -56.64% -56.61%
Adjusted R² 0.12 0.12
Annualised residual volatility 43.44% 43.44%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.16 (4.68) 1.17 (4.38)
Size (SMB) 0.89 (2.45) 0.92 (2.00)
Value (HML) 1.16 (3.38) 1.13 (2.94)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.08 (-0.16)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.08 (0.14)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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