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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 1919 - COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. - H Shares

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 17.63%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 27.00%
1-Year Price Return* 12.99%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$15.49
52-Week Range HK$11.61 – HK$16.6
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$219.50B HK$233.86B
Net income Reported net income HK$30.86B HK$49.17B
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$483.76B HK$497.47B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$232.27B HK$234.67B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 14.06% 21.03%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4537x 0.4701x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.0828x 2.1199x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 13.29% 20.95%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$219.50B
Prior annual revenue HK$233.86B
EBIT HK$45.00B
Tax rate 16.13%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$37.74B
Forecast start-growth basis -6.14%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$37.74B
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$20.96B
Less: capital expenditure -HK$25.02B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -HK$7.07B
Current unlevered FCFF HK$26.62B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -6.14% HK$35.43B HK$19.67B -HK$23.48B -HK$6.64B HK$24.98B HK$24.15B
2 -3.98% HK$34.02B HK$18.89B -HK$21.63B -HK$6.37B HK$24.90B HK$22.49B
3 -1.82% HK$33.40B HK$18.55B -HK$20.34B -HK$6.26B HK$25.35B HK$21.39B
4 0.34% HK$33.51B HK$18.61B -HK$19.51B -HK$6.28B HK$26.33B HK$20.76B
5 2.50% HK$34.35B HK$19.07B -HK$19.07B -HK$6.44B HK$27.91B HK$20.56B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.62
Cost of equity 8.15%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.94%
WACC 7.03%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$631.79B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.52x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 80.45%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$109.35B
Present value of terminal value HK$449.85B
Indicated enterprise value HK$559.20B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$559.20B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$76.56B
Add: cash and equivalents HK$151.18B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$51.14B
Indicated common equity value HK$582.68B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 15,549,074,426.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$16.70
DCF indicative value per share HK$37.47
Indicative value vs. market price 124.39%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:56:29.022655 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -15.21% -16.88%
Adjusted R² 0.08 0.08
Annualised residual volatility 26.22% 26.16%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.56 (3.76) 0.62 (3.85)
Size (SMB) 0.06 (0.26) 0.22 (0.80)
Value (HML) 0.79 (3.81) 0.76 (3.28)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.05 (0.18)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.32 (0.98)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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