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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 2228 - XtalPi Holdings Ltd.

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 7.06%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 60.41%
1-Year Price Return* -10.30%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, Hong Kong time):

Metric Value
Last Price HK$7.855
52-Week Range HK$6.3 – HK$15.12
Observation Count 245 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year price series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$802.62M HK$266.43M
Net income Reported net income HK$123.75M HK$-1.52B
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$10.22B HK$4.35B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$9.38B HK$3.96B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 15.42% -569.23%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.0786x 0.0612x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.0889x 1.0986x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 1.32% -38.26%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$802.62M
Prior annual revenue HK$266.43M
EBIT HK$144.73M
Tax rate 0.58%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$143.90M
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$143.90M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$115.60M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$77.74M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -HK$46.45M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$135.30M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% HK$165.48M HK$132.94M -HK$89.40M -HK$53.42M HK$155.60M HK$147.25M
2 11.88% HK$185.13M HK$148.73M -HK$112.19M -HK$59.77M HK$161.90M HK$137.21M
3 8.75% HK$201.33M HK$161.74M -HK$135.25M -HK$65.00M HK$162.82M HK$123.59M
4 5.62% HK$212.65M HK$170.84M -HK$156.85M -HK$68.65M HK$157.99M HK$107.40M
5 2.50% HK$217.97M HK$175.11M -HK$175.11M -HK$70.37M HK$147.60M HK$89.86M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.28
Cost of equity 11.78%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.17%
WACC 11.66%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$1.65B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 4.19x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 61.12%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$605.31M
Present value of terminal value HK$951.62M
Indicated enterprise value HK$1.56B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$1.56B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$441.86M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$7.05B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$47.16M
Indicated common equity value HK$8.12B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 4,303,371,761.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price HK$7.50
DCF indicative value per share HK$1.89
Indicative value vs. market price -74.85%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 2/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 2/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 16:59:09.479315 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -8.12% -4.99%
Adjusted R² 0.11 0.11
Annualised residual volatility 56.87% 56.72%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.33 (4.11) 1.35 (3.85)
Size (SMB) 1.17 (2.45) 1.12 (1.88)
Value (HML) 0.03 (0.07) -0.18 (-0.37)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.65 (-1.02)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.10 (0.15)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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