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HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 6288 - Fast Retailing Co., Ltd. - DRS

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.) 18.47%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.) 32.18%

Price Snapshot:

Metric Value
Last Price 29.500 HKD
Day Change -0.660 (-2.24%)

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$3,400.54B HK$3,103.84B
Net income Reported net income HK$433.01B HK$372.00B
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$3,859.35B HK$3,587.57B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$2,273.11B HK$2,016.54B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 12.73% 11.99%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.8811x 0.8652x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.6978x 1.7791x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 19.05% 18.45%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$3,400.54B
Prior annual revenue HK$3,103.84B
EBIT HK$663.41B
Tax rate 29.42%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$468.21B
Forecast start-growth basis 9.56%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$468.21B
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$216.49B
Less: capital expenditure -HK$178.79B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -HK$40.72B
Current unlevered FCFF HK$465.19B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 9.56% HK$512.97B HK$237.19B -HK$195.88B -HK$44.62B HK$509.66B HK$495.97B
2 7.79% HK$552.95B HK$255.67B -HK$222.28B -HK$48.09B HK$538.25B HK$496.04B
3 6.03% HK$586.29B HK$271.09B -HK$247.48B -HK$50.99B HK$558.90B HK$487.78B
4 4.26% HK$611.30B HK$282.65B -HK$270.35B -HK$53.17B HK$570.43B HK$471.47B
5 2.50% HK$626.58B HK$289.72B -HK$289.72B -HK$54.50B HK$572.08B HK$447.77B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.46
Cost of equity 7.25%
Pre-tax cost of debt 2.59%
WACC 5.60%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$18,944.60B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 16.09x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 85.74%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$2,399.04B
Present value of terminal value HK$14,429.91B
Indicated enterprise value HK$16,828.95B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$16,828.95B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$513.50B
Add: cash and equivalents HK$1,792.94B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$54.38B
Indicated common equity value HK$18,054.00B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 30,724,675,730.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price HK$38.12
DCF indicative value per share HK$587.61
Indicative value vs. market price 1,441.46%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:10:10.324228 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-08-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 72.43% 73.87%
Adjusted R² 0.04 0.06
Annualised residual volatility 36.22% 35.76%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.66 (3.20) 0.77 (3.51)
Size (SMB) 0.33 (1.10) 0.55 (1.45)
Value (HML) 0.18 (0.64) -0.12 (-0.39)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.69 (-1.72)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.64 (1.42)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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