Checking your sign-in status…

Private workspace

Finance

Research, portfolio tools, and market analysis in one place.

Finance home
Back to HK Equities

HK Equities · Finance research note

HKEX 9911 - Newborn Town Inc.

Research and analysis only
View analysis Browse HK Equities

Evidence and analysis

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

Loading verified snapshot
Loading verified market, valuation, and statement data.

2. Company Fundamentals

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.) 139.75%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.) 66.20%

Price Snapshot:

Metric Value
Last Price 7.830 HKD
Day Change -0.650 (-8.30%)

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in HK$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue HK$6.89B HK$5.09B
Net income Reported net income HK$934.53M HK$480.31M
Total assets Year-end reported balance HK$4.39B HK$3.58B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance HK$2.43B HK$1.54B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 13.57% 9.43%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.5677x 1.4210x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.8050x 2.3249x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 38.39% 31.17%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue HK$6.89B
Prior annual revenue HK$5.09B
EBIT HK$973.95M
Tax rate 25.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) HK$730.46M
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT HK$730.46M
Add: depreciation & amortisation HK$104.44M
Less: capital expenditure -HK$37.78M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement HK$87.13M
Current unlevered FCFF HK$884.25M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% HK$840.03M HK$120.10M -HK$43.44M HK$100.20M HK$1.02B HK$978.35M
2 11.88% HK$939.78M HK$134.37M -HK$70.04M HK$112.10M HK$1.12B HK$994.03M
3 8.75% HK$1.02B HK$146.12M -HK$99.49M HK$121.90M HK$1.19B HK$981.40M
4 5.62% HK$1.08B HK$154.34M -HK$129.71M HK$128.76M HK$1.23B HK$940.73M
5 2.50% HK$1.11B HK$158.20M -HK$158.20M HK$131.98M HK$1.24B HK$874.71M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.59
Cost of equity 7.97%
Pre-tax cost of debt 22.16%
WACC 8.03%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value HK$22.94B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 14.04x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 76.57%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF HK$4.77B
Present value of terminal value HK$15.59B
Indicated enterprise value HK$20.36B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value HK$20.36B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt HK$86.00M
Add: cash and equivalents HK$2.79B
Add: affiliate investments HK$0.00
Less: minority interests HK$139.96M
Indicated common equity value HK$22.93B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,400,338,391.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price HK$8.23
DCF indicative value per share HK$16.37
Indicative value vs. market price 98.80%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:19:09.632034 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set Asia Pacific ex Japan
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-20 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 210
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings HKD adjusted close divided by daily USD/HKD close before simple daily return calculation

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -27.83% -24.80%
Adjusted R² 0.15 0.15
Annualised residual volatility 59.07% 58.93%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.48 (4.40) 1.35 (3.71)
Size (SMB) 1.87 (3.78) 1.51 (2.42)
Value (HML) 0.21 (0.45) 0.30 (0.58)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.06 (-0.09)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.73 (-0.98)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

hkexstockequity9911