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US Equities · Finance research note

AAPL — Apple Inc.

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 32.27%
Profit Margins 27.15%
Return on Equity 141.47%
Return on Assets 26.23%
Free Float 14.66B
Dividend Yield 0.39%
Short Int % Utilisation 1.06%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 16.6%
Free Cash Flow 101.09B
EBITDA 26.87 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 4298.74B
EV/Revenue 9.52
EV/EBITDA 26.87

Revenue growth of 16.6% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 37.11%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 25.03%
1-Year Price Return* 32.59%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $305.93
52-Week Range $223.78 – $344.57
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $416.16B $391.04B
Net income Reported net income $112.01B $93.74B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $359.24B $364.98B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $73.73B $56.95B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 26.92% 23.97%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.1584x 1.0714x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 4.8722x 6.4088x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 151.91% 164.59%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.6 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $416.16B
Prior annual revenue $391.04B
EBIT $133.05B
Tax rate 15.60%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $112.29B
Forecast start-growth basis 6.43%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $112.29B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $11.70B
Less: capital expenditure -$12.71B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$25.00B
Current unlevered FCFF $86.28B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 6.43% $119.51B $12.45B -$13.53B -$26.61B $91.82B $87.31B
2 5.44% $126.02B $13.13B -$13.98B -$28.05B $97.11B $83.49B
3 4.46% $131.64B $13.71B -$14.31B -$29.31B $101.74B $79.09B
4 3.48% $136.22B $14.19B -$14.50B -$30.33B $105.59B $74.22B
5 2.50% $139.63B $14.55B -$14.55B -$31.09B $108.54B $68.99B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.09
Cost of equity 10.68%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 10.60%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $1,374.20B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.64x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 67.87%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $393.10B
Present value of terminal value $830.53B
Indicated enterprise value $1,223.63B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $1,223.63B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $98.66B
Add: cash and equivalents $54.70B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $1,179.67B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 15,004,697,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $310.65
DCF indicative value per share $78.62
Indicative value vs. market price -74.69%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.7 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:20:20.285960 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-09-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.8 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 12.55% 27.45%
Adjusted R² 0.20 0.26
Annualised residual volatility 20.95% 20.15%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.84 (6.85) 1.12 (8.18)
Size (SMB) -0.10 (-0.60) -0.13 (-0.74)
Value (HML) 0.06 (0.41) -0.26 (-1.54)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.42 (2.90)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.57 (2.27)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

References


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