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ABBV — AbbVie

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 32.16%
Profit Margins 5.79%
Return on Assets 10.03%
Free Float 1.76B
Dividend Yield 2.73%
Short Int % Utilisation 1.46%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 12.4%
Free Cash Flow 20.81B
EBITDA 15.41 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 461.01B
EV/Revenue 7.34
EV/EBITDA 15.41

Revenue growth of 12.4% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 28.93%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 26.09%
1-Year Price Return* 24.44%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $249.46
52-Week Range $190.75 – $267.47
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $61.16B $56.33B
Net income Reported net income $4.19B $4.24B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $133.96B $135.16B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $-3.27B $3.33B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 6.84% 7.52%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4566x 0.4168x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity -40.9664x 40.6499x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -128.01% 127.46%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $61.16B
Prior annual revenue $56.33B
EBIT $9.49B
Tax rate 35.83%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $6.09B
Forecast start-growth basis 8.57%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $6.09B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $8.14B
Less: capital expenditure -$1.21B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$2.36B
Current unlevered FCFF $10.65B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 8.57% $6.61B $8.84B -$1.32B -$2.56B $11.56B $11.24B
2 7.05% $7.08B $9.46B -$3.42B -$2.75B $10.37B $9.53B
3 5.53% $7.47B $9.98B -$5.74B -$2.90B $8.82B $7.66B
4 4.02% $7.77B $10.38B -$8.17B -$3.01B $6.96B $5.72B
5 2.50% $7.96B $10.64B -$10.64B -$3.09B $4.87B $3.78B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.28
Cost of equity 6.25%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.30%
WACC 5.80%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $151.36B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 6.57x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 75.06%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $37.93B
Present value of terminal value $114.17B
Indicated enterprise value $152.10B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $152.10B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $67.50B
Add: cash and equivalents $5.26B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $42.00M
Indicated common equity value $89.82B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,773,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $257.64
DCF indicative value per share $50.66
Indicative value vs. market price -80.34%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:20:24.089078 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 24.56% 33.76%
Adjusted R² -0.01 0.03
Annualised residual volatility 26.21% 25.60%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.01 (0.09) 0.19 (1.12)
Size (SMB) 0.24 (1.14) 0.06 (0.27)
Value (HML) 0.04 (0.24) -0.36 (-1.65)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.07 (0.38)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.95 (3.00)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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