Checking your sign-in status…

Private workspace

Finance

Research, portfolio tools, and market analysis in one place.

Finance home
Back to US Equities

US Equities · Finance research note

ADP — Automatic Data Processing

Research and analysis only
View analysis Browse US Equities

Evidence and analysis

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

Loading verified snapshot
Loading verified market, valuation, and statement data.

2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 30.18%
Profit Margins 20.12%
Return on Equity 71.21%
Return on Assets 5.95%
Free Float 0.4B
Dividend Yield 3.14%
Short Int % Utilisation 4.28%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 7.0%
Free Cash Flow 4.75B
EBITDA 14.76 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 93.55B
EV/Revenue 4.33
EV/EBITDA 14.76

Revenue growth of 7.0% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -3.69%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 26.95%
1-Year Price Return* -7.04%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $272.96
52-Week Range $188.16 – $310.08
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $21.95B $20.56B
Net income Reported net income $4.41B $4.08B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $63.19B $53.37B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $6.03B $6.19B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 20.11% 19.84%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.3473x 0.3853x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 10.4777x 8.6246x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 73.18% 65.93%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $21.95B
Prior annual revenue $20.56B
EBIT $6.19B
Tax rate 22.98%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $4.77B
Forecast start-growth basis 6.74%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $4.77B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $585.90M
Less: capital expenditure -$665.10M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$1.11B
Current unlevered FCFF $3.58B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 6.74% $5.09B $625.41M -$709.95M -$1.18B $3.82B $3.66B
2 5.68% $5.38B $660.95M -$727.96M -$1.25B $4.06B $3.57B
3 4.62% $5.63B $691.50M -$738.23M -$1.31B $4.27B $3.44B
4 3.56% $5.83B $716.12M -$740.32M -$1.35B $4.45B $3.29B
5 2.50% $5.97B $734.02M -$734.02M -$1.39B $4.59B $3.11B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.82
Cost of equity 9.24%
Pre-tax cost of debt 6.41%
WACC 9.04%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $71.91B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.47x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 73.21%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $17.07B
Present value of terminal value $46.65B
Indicated enterprise value $63.72B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $63.72B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $5.27B
Add: cash and equivalents $4.23B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $62.68B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 397,262,737.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price $272.48
DCF indicative value per share $157.78
Indicative value vs. market price -42.09%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:20:55.349068 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-06-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -31.91% -26.24%
Adjusted R² 0.01 0.03
Annualised residual volatility 25.23% 24.89%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.10 (0.70) 0.29 (1.70)
Size (SMB) 0.32 (1.61) 0.26 (1.20)
Value (HML) 0.08 (0.44) -0.19 (-0.92)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.22 (1.23)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.55 (1.78)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

us-equitystockequityadpindustrialshuman-resource--employment-servicesnasdaq