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US Equities · Finance research note

ALLE — Allegion

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 18.88%
Profit Margins 15.24%
Return on Equity 34.18%
Return on Assets 11.03%
Free Float 0.09B
Dividend Yield 1.52%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.92%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 9.7%
Free Cash Flow 0.49B
EBITDA 12.89 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 13.03B
EV/Revenue 3.13
EV/EBITDA 12.89

Revenue growth of 9.7% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 3.13%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 27.40%
1-Year Price Return* -0.65%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $164.78
52-Week Range $125.00 – $183.11
Observation Count 250 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $4.07B $3.77B
Net income Reported net income $643.80M $597.50M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $5.22B $4.49B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $2.07B $1.50B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 15.83% 15.84%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.7786x 0.8405x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.5265x 2.9905x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 31.14% 39.81%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $4.07B
Prior annual revenue $3.77B
EBIT $869.40M
Tax rate 16.22%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $728.42M
Forecast start-growth basis 7.82%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $728.42M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $133.20M
Less: capital expenditure -$98.10M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$19.20M
Current unlevered FCFF $744.32M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 7.82% $785.41M $143.62M -$105.77M -$20.70M $802.55M $769.71M
2 6.49% $836.40M $152.94M -$122.72M -$22.05M $844.58M $745.09M
3 5.16% $879.57M $160.84M -$139.65M -$23.18M $877.58M $712.14M
4 3.83% $913.26M $167.00M -$156.00M -$24.07M $900.19M $671.94M
5 2.50% $936.09M $171.18M -$171.18M -$24.67M $911.42M $625.78M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.84
Cost of equity 9.36%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.08%
WACC 8.71%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $15.03B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 11.67x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 73.74%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.52B
Present value of terminal value $9.90B
Indicated enterprise value $13.42B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $13.42B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $1.98B
Add: cash and equivalents $356.20M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $11.80B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 86,600,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $161.10
DCF indicative value per share $136.26
Indicative value vs. market price -15.42%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:21:51.169799 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -36.66% -27.38%
Adjusted R² 0.23 0.31
Annualised residual volatility 22.27% 21.03%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.72 (5.52) 1.04 (7.27)
Size (SMB) 0.61 (3.44) 0.48 (2.65)
Value (HML) 0.48 (3.17) -0.00 (-0.01)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.35 (2.35)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.01 (3.86)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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