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AMCR — Amcor

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 8.59%
Profit Margins 3.06%
Return on Equity 8.74%
Return on Assets 4.08%
Free Float 0.46B
Dividend Yield 6.07%
Short Int % Utilisation 7.24%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 77.4%
Free Cash Flow 0.15B
EBITDA 10.26 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 32.83B
EV/Revenue 1.48
EV/EBITDA 10.26

Revenue growth of 77.4% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 14.00%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 31.04%
1-Year Price Return* 8.62%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $46.03
52-Week Range $36.25 – $50.94
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $23.51B $15.01B
Net income Reported net income $1.11B $510.00M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $37.09B $37.07B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $11.79B $11.73B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 4.71% 3.40%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.6337x 0.4049x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.1463x 3.1605x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 9.38% 4.35%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $23.51B
Prior annual revenue $15.01B
EBIT $1.96B
Tax rate 14.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.68B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.68B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $1.48B
Less: capital expenditure -$922.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$273.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.97B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $1.93B $1.70B -$1.06B -$313.95M $2.26B $2.19B
2 11.88% $2.16B $1.90B -$1.37B -$351.23M $2.35B $2.14B
3 8.75% $2.35B $2.07B -$1.68B -$381.96M $2.36B $2.03B
4 5.62% $2.49B $2.19B -$1.98B -$403.45M $2.29B $1.85B
5 2.50% $2.55B $2.24B -$2.24B -$413.54M $2.13B $1.62B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.59
Cost of equity 7.97%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.53%
WACC 6.30%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $57.62B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 11.07x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 81.20%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $9.83B
Present value of terminal value $42.46B
Indicated enterprise value $52.30B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $52.30B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $14.86B
Add: cash and equivalents $1.11B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $11.00M
Indicated common equity value $38.54B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 462,345,690.00
Share-count basis reported shares outstanding; option/RSU dilution data not separately available
Current market price $46.17
DCF indicative value per share $83.35
Indicative value vs. market price 80.52%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:22:03.625339 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-06-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -18.46% -3.19%
Adjusted R² 0.18 0.30
Annualised residual volatility 27.64% 25.37%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.89 (5.49) 1.30 (7.58)
Size (SMB) 0.43 (1.97) 0.15 (0.69)
Value (HML) 0.50 (2.63) -0.27 (-1.27)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.32 (1.76)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.74 (5.50)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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