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AMZN — Amazon

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 13.14%
Profit Margins 12.22%
Return on Equity 24.29%
Return on Assets 6.84%
Free Float 9.78B
Short Int % Utilisation 0.94%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 16.6%
Free Cash Flow 9.81B
EBITDA 17.02 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 2652.64B
EV/Revenue 3.57
EV/EBITDA 17.02

Revenue growth of 16.6% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 20.59%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 34.47%
1-Year Price Return* 13.69%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $262.65
52-Week Range $196.00 – $287.20
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $716.92B $637.96B
Net income Reported net income $77.67B $59.25B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $818.04B $624.89B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $411.06B $285.97B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 10.83% 9.29%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.8764x 1.0209x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.9901x 2.1852x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 18.89% 20.72%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $716.92B
Prior annual revenue $637.96B
EBIT $99.58B
Tax rate 19.61%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $80.05B
Forecast start-growth basis 12.38%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $80.05B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $65.76B
Less: capital expenditure -$131.82B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$19.97B
Current unlevered FCFF -$5.98B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 12.38% $89.96B $73.90B -$148.14B -$22.44B -$6.72B -$6.35B
2 9.91% $98.87B $81.22B -$142.41B -$24.66B $13.01B $10.96B
3 7.44% $106.23B $87.26B -$131.09B -$26.50B $35.90B $26.97B
4 4.97% $111.51B $91.59B -$114.60B -$27.82B $60.69B $40.66B
5 2.50% $114.30B $93.88B -$93.88B -$28.51B $85.78B $51.26B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.45
Cost of equity 12.71%
Pre-tax cost of debt 1.60%
WACC 12.12%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $913.84B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 3.87x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 80.68%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $123.51B
Present value of terminal value $515.72B
Indicated enterprise value $639.23B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $639.23B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $152.99B
Add: cash and equivalents $123.03B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $609.27B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 10,827,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $261.79
DCF indicative value per share $56.27
Indicative value vs. market price -78.50%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 2/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:22:28.149799 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -8.00% -0.30%
Adjusted R² 0.37 0.40
Annualised residual volatility 24.52% 23.85%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.28 (8.84) 1.41 (8.74)
Size (SMB) -0.00 (-0.00) 0.23 (1.14)
Value (HML) -0.40 (-2.37) -0.26 (-1.30)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.54 (3.14)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.62 (-2.09)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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