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US Equities · Finance research note

AWK — American Water Works

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 33.22%
Profit Margins 21.17%
Return on Equity 10.22%
Return on Assets 3.51%
Free Float 0.19B
Dividend Yield 2.70%
Short Int % Utilisation 7.35%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 5.7%
Free Cash Flow -1.9B
EBITDA 14.18 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 40.22B
EV/Revenue 7.73
EV/EBITDA 14.18

Revenue growth of 5.7% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -0.38%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 22.24%
1-Year Price Return* -2.78%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $136.20
52-Week Range $120.57 – $147.87
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $5.14B $4.68B
Net income Reported net income $1.11B $1.05B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $35.44B $32.83B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $10.84B $10.33B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 21.61% 22.44%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.1450x 0.1427x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.2705x 3.1775x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 10.25% 10.17%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $5.14B
Prior annual revenue $4.68B
EBIT $2.04B
Tax rate 21.90%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.59B
Forecast start-growth basis 9.74%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.59B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $894.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$3.30B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$51.00M
Current unlevered FCFF -$867.10M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 9.74% $1.75B $981.03M -$3.62B -$55.96M -$951.52M -$923.51M
2 7.93% $1.88B $1.06B -$3.20B -$60.40M -$314.27M -$287.32M
3 6.12% $2.00B $1.12B -$2.64B -$64.10M $422.78M $364.11M
4 4.31% $2.09B $1.17B -$1.96B -$66.86M $1.23B $997.74M
5 2.50% $2.14B $1.20B -$1.20B -$68.53M $2.07B $1.58B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.58
Cost of equity 7.89%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.10%
WACC 6.16%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $57.98B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 14.72x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 96.13%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $1.73B
Present value of terminal value $43.00B
Indicated enterprise value $44.74B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $44.74B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $15.92B
Add: cash and equivalents $98.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $28.92B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 195,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $137.21
DCF indicative value per share $148.28
Indicative value vs. market price 8.07%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration review required
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 0/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 1/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:23:35.657845 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -8.44% 0.35%
Adjusted R² 0.11 0.17
Annualised residual volatility 20.43% 19.69%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.45 (-3.71) -0.23 (-1.72)
Size (SMB) 0.44 (2.69) 0.31 (1.85)
Value (HML) 0.18 (1.26) -0.20 (-1.20)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.20 (1.41)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.82 (3.37)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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