US Equities Analysis

BALL — Ball Corporation

Research evidence pack

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 9.35%
Profit Margins 6.86%
Return on Equity 16.79%
Return on Assets 4.7%
Free Float 0.27B
Dividend Yield 1.29%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.95%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 16.3%
Free Cash Flow 0.4B
EBITDA 10.73 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 22.03B
EV/Revenue 1.61
EV/EBITDA 10.73

Revenue growth of 16.3% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 20.57%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 25.96%
1-Year Price Return* 16.48%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $61.82
52-Week Range $44.83 – $68.29
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $13.16B
Prior annual revenue $11.79B
EBIT $1.44B
Tax rate 21.30%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.13B
Forecast start-growth basis 11.58%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.13B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $622.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$474.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$131.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.15B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 11.58% $1.27B $694.03M -$528.89M -$146.17M $1.29B $1.24B
2 9.31% $1.38B $758.66M -$623.27M -$159.78M $1.36B $1.21B
3 7.04% $1.48B $812.07M -$715.46M -$171.03M $1.41B $1.16B
4 4.77% $1.55B $850.81M -$800.20M -$179.19M $1.42B $1.08B
5 2.50% $1.59B $872.08M -$872.08M -$183.67M $1.41B $989.64M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.96
Cost of equity 9.97%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.95%
WACC 8.14%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $25.57B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.84x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 75.29%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $5.67B
Present value of terminal value $17.29B
Indicated enterprise value $22.97B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $22.97B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $7.01B
Add: cash and equivalents $1.21B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $17.17B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 275,972,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $61.48
DCF indicative value per share $62.20
Indicative value vs. market price 1.18%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:24:00.836614 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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