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US Equities · Finance research note

BG — Bunge Global

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 1.23%
Profit Margins 0.85%
Return on Equity 4.93%
Return on Assets 2.38%
Free Float 0.16B
Dividend Yield 2.58%
Short Int % Utilisation 4.98%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 87.8%
Free Cash Flow -6.83B
EBITDA 18.31 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 40.9B
EV/Revenue 0.51
EV/EBITDA 18.31

Revenue growth of 87.8% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 50.63%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 31.77%
1-Year Price Return* 42.93%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $113.69
52-Week Range $76.01 – $134.87
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $70.33B $53.11B
Net income Reported net income $816.00M $1.14B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $44.53B $24.90B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $15.90B $9.91B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 1.16% 2.14%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.5794x 2.1329x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.7998x 2.5118x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 5.13% 11.47%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $70.33B
Prior annual revenue $53.11B
EBIT $1.76B
Tax rate 25.40%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.31B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.31B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $703.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$1.72B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$502.00M
Current unlevered FCFF -$207.55M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $1.51B $808.45M -$1.98B -$577.30M -$238.68M -$231.25M
2 11.88% $1.69B $904.45M -$1.89B -$645.85M $61.05M $55.53M
3 8.75% $1.84B $983.59M -$1.70B -$702.37M $423.17M $361.32M
4 5.62% $1.94B $1.04B -$1.42B -$741.87M $823.82M $660.32M
5 2.50% $1.99B $1.06B -$1.06B -$760.42M $1.23B $926.01M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.65
Cost of equity 8.29%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.47%
WACC 6.53%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $31.34B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.39x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 92.80%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $1.77B
Present value of terminal value $22.85B
Indicated enterprise value $24.62B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $24.62B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $15.86B
Add: cash and equivalents $2.20B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $1.52B
Indicated common equity value $9.45B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 193,408,656.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $114.61
DCF indicative value per share $48.86
Indicative value vs. market price -57.37%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration review required
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 0/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 1/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:24:27.678467 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 28.25% 28.19%
Adjusted R² 0.05 0.06
Annualised residual volatility 30.18% 29.83%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.02 (0.09) 0.05 (0.23)
Size (SMB) 0.58 (2.43) 0.38 (1.47)
Value (HML) 0.34 (1.66) 0.07 (0.27)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.22 (-1.02)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.80 (2.16)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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