US Equities Analysis

CASY — Casey's

Research evidence pack

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 4.98%
Profit Margins 3.83%
Return on Equity 17.88%
Return on Assets 7.13%
Free Float 0.04B
Dividend Yield 0.30%
Short Int % Utilisation 4.2%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 0.3%
Free Cash Flow 0.47B
EBITDA 22.0 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 30.56B
EV/Revenue 1.8
EV/EBITDA 22.0

Revenue growth of 0.3% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 76.98%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 33.22%
1-Year Price Return* 67.26%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $846.45
52-Week Range $490.00 – $927.85
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $17.56B
Prior annual revenue $15.94B
EBIT $1.03B
Tax rate 23.80%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $787.65M
Forecast start-growth basis 10.16%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $787.65M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $449.96M
Less: capital expenditure -$655.92M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $21.92M
Current unlevered FCFF $603.60M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 10.16% $867.70M $495.69M -$722.59M $24.15M $664.95M $640.12M
2 8.25% $939.27M $536.57M -$720.78M $26.14M $781.20M $696.90M
3 6.33% $998.74M $570.55M -$701.13M $27.79M $895.95M $740.68M
4 4.42% $1.04B $595.75M -$663.92M $29.02M $1.00B $768.92M
5 2.50% $1.07B $610.64M -$610.64M $29.74M $1.10B $779.98M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.61
Cost of equity 8.09%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 7.91%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $20.81B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.34x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 79.69%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.63B
Present value of terminal value $14.23B
Indicated enterprise value $17.85B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $17.85B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $2.91B
Add: cash and equivalents $522.99M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $15.47B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 37,281,653.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $866.22
DCF indicative value per share $414.95
Indicative value vs. market price -52.10%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:25:43.870733 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-04-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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