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US Equities · Finance research note

CCJ

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Free Float 0.43B

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
EV/EBITDA 52.94

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 51.25%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 56.10%
1-Year Price Return* 29.54%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $97.74
52-Week Range $68.96 – $135.24
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $3.48B $3.14B
Net income Reported net income $589.58M $171.85M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $10.30B $9.91B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $6.90B $6.36B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 16.93% 5.48%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.3380x 0.3165x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.4922x 1.5567x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 8.54% 2.70%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $3.48B
Prior annual revenue $3.14B
EBIT $872.98M
Tax rate 24.15%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $662.14M
Forecast start-growth basis 11.04%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $662.14M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $293.09M
Less: capital expenditure -$333.02M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $237.03M
Current unlevered FCFF $859.25M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 11.04% $735.24M $325.45M -$369.79M $263.20M $954.10M $909.37M
2 8.90% $800.71M $354.43M -$390.64M $286.64M $1.05B $910.12M
3 6.77% $854.91M $378.42M -$404.20M $306.04M $1.14B $892.89M
4 4.63% $894.53M $395.96M -$409.45M $320.23M $1.20B $858.36M
5 2.50% $916.90M $405.86M -$405.86M $328.23M $1.25B $808.23M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.99
Cost of equity 10.17%
Pre-tax cost of debt 8.41%
WACC 10.08%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $16.84B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.43x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 70.41%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $4.38B
Present value of terminal value $10.42B
Indicated enterprise value $14.80B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $14.80B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $996.35M
Add: cash and equivalents $1.21B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $15,000.00
Indicated common equity value $15.01B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 435,580,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $95.77
DCF indicative value per share $34.47
Indicative value vs. market price -64.01%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:26:10.169303 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 23.68% 4.01%
Adjusted R² 0.25 0.27
Annualised residual volatility 49.96% 49.07%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 2.01 (6.83) 1.61 (4.84)
Size (SMB) 0.16 (0.40) 0.33 (0.79)
Value (HML) -0.46 (-1.35) 0.16 (0.39)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.44 (-1.26)
Investment (CMA) NM -1.31 (-2.14)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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