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US Equities · Finance research note

CF — CF Industries

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 33.59%
Profit Margins 23.73%
Return on Equity 27.3%
Return on Assets 11.34%
Free Float 0.15B
Dividend Yield 1.90%
Short Int % Utilisation 7.31%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 19.4%
Free Cash Flow 1.08B
EBITDA 6.19 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 21.28B
EV/Revenue 2.87
EV/EBITDA 6.19

Revenue growth of 19.4% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 53.00%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 42.01%
1-Year Price Return* 39.85%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $118.30
52-Week Range $75.42 – $141.96
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $7.08B $5.94B
Net income Reported net income $1.46B $1.22B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $14.09B $13.47B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $4.84B $4.99B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 20.54% 20.52%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.5028x 0.4408x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.9119x 2.7013x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 30.07% 24.43%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $7.08B
Prior annual revenue $5.94B
EBIT $2.38B
Tax rate 19.70%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.91B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.91B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $898.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$951.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$117.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.74B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $2.20B $1.03B -$1.09B -$134.55M $2.01B $1.95B
2 11.88% $2.46B $1.16B -$1.21B -$150.53M $2.26B $2.06B
3 8.75% $2.68B $1.26B -$1.29B -$163.70M $2.48B $2.13B
4 5.62% $2.83B $1.33B -$1.35B -$172.91M $2.64B $2.13B
5 2.50% $2.90B $1.36B -$1.36B -$177.23M $2.72B $2.07B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.40
Cost of equity 6.90%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.21%
WACC 6.32%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $73.12B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 14.71x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 83.90%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $10.33B
Present value of terminal value $53.83B
Indicated enterprise value $64.16B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $64.16B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $3.64B
Add: cash and equivalents $1.98B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $2.94B
Indicated common equity value $59.57B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 162,200,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $120.53
DCF indicative value per share $367.27
Indicative value vs. market price 204.71%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:26:28.990722 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 37.39% 17.50%
Adjusted R² 0.08 0.10
Annualised residual volatility 40.37% 39.77%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.53 (-2.21) -0.86 (-3.18)
Size (SMB) -0.21 (-0.66) -0.24 (-0.69)
Value (HML) 0.73 (2.64) 1.05 (3.12)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.59 (-2.07)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.48 (-0.97)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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