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US Equities · Finance research note

CHRW — C.H. Robinson

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 4.91%
Profit Margins 3.7%
Return on Equity 34.84%
Return on Assets 10.08%
Free Float 0.12B
Dividend Yield 1.41%
Short Int % Utilisation 6.69%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth -0.8%
Free Cash Flow 0.64B
EBITDA 26.25 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 23.29B
EV/Revenue 1.44
EV/EBITDA 26.25

Revenue growth of -0.8% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 37.46%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 44.07%
1-Year Price Return* 24.48%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $148.57
52-Week Range $120.56 – $210.33
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $16.23B $17.72B
Net income Reported net income $587.08M $465.69M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $5.06B $5.30B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $1.85B $1.72B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 3.62% 2.63%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 3.2091x 3.3456x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.7407x 3.0765x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 31.81% 27.04%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $16.23B
Prior annual revenue $17.72B
EBIT $794.96M
Tax rate 18.74%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $646.00M
Forecast start-growth basis -8.42%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $646.00M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $102.82M
Less: capital expenditure -$70.54M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $148.75M
Current unlevered FCFF $827.02M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -8.42% $591.61M $94.16M -$64.60M $136.22M $757.40M $723.97M
2 -5.69% $557.96M $88.81M -$67.90M $128.47M $707.34M $617.75M
3 -2.96% $541.45M $86.18M -$72.65M $124.67M $679.64M $542.32M
4 -0.23% $540.20M $85.98M -$79.23M $124.38M $671.34M $489.45M
5 2.50% $553.71M $88.13M -$88.13M $127.49M $681.20M $453.77M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.95
Cost of equity 9.91%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.62%
WACC 9.45%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $10.05B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 13.06x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 69.35%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $2.83B
Present value of terminal value $6.40B
Indicated enterprise value $9.23B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $9.23B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $1.40B
Add: cash and equivalents $160.87M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $7.99B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 121,502,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $145.68
DCF indicative value per share $65.77
Indicative value vs. market price -54.86%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:26:41.122411 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 21.45% 21.68%
Adjusted R² 0.13 0.12
Annualised residual volatility 37.79% 37.77%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.18 (5.30) 1.19 (4.65)
Size (SMB) -0.10 (-0.33) -0.16 (-0.50)
Value (HML) 0.99 (3.81) 0.90 (2.82)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.06 (-0.21)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.24 (0.51)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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