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CMG — Chipotle Mexican Grill

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 13.27%
Profit Margins 11.96%
Return on Equity 49.23%
Return on Assets 13.54%
Free Float 1.27B
Short Int % Utilisation 3.94%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 7.4%
Free Cash Flow 1.09B
EBITDA 18.84 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 43.4B
EV/Revenue 3.58
EV/EBITDA 18.84

Revenue growth of 7.4% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -17.22%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 41.24%
1-Year Price Return* -23.93%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $33.50
52-Week Range $28.04 – $44.27
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $11.93B $11.31B
Net income Reported net income $1.54B $1.53B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $8.99B $9.20B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $2.83B $3.66B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 12.88% 13.56%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.3259x 1.2292x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.1776x 2.5179x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 54.26% 41.97%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $11.93B
Prior annual revenue $11.31B
EBIT $2.01B
Tax rate 23.58%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.54B
Forecast start-growth basis 5.41%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.54B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $361.38M
Less: capital expenditure -$666.34M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $6.50M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.24B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 5.41% $1.62B $380.92M -$702.37M $6.85M $1.31B $1.25B
2 4.68% $1.70B $398.75M -$651.12M $7.17M $1.45B $1.27B
3 3.95% $1.76B $414.52M -$589.41M $7.45M $1.60B $1.27B
4 3.23% $1.82B $427.89M -$518.16M $7.70M $1.74B $1.27B
5 2.50% $1.87B $438.59M -$438.59M $7.89M $1.87B $1.25B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.94
Cost of equity 9.87%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 9.44%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $27.67B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 9.60x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 73.64%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $6.31B
Present value of terminal value $17.62B
Indicated enterprise value $23.93B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $23.93B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $5.08B
Add: cash and equivalents $1.04B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $19.90B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,342,616,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $33.85
DCF indicative value per share $14.82
Indicative value vs. market price -56.22%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:27:18.370310 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -36.18% -22.76%
Adjusted R² 0.15 0.19
Annualised residual volatility 34.83% 33.81%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.73 (3.56) 1.12 (4.90)
Size (SMB) 1.01 (3.65) 1.12 (3.86)
Value (HML) -0.00 (-0.00) -0.28 (-0.99)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.81 (3.32)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.27 (0.64)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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