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US Equities · Finance research note

COP — ConocoPhillips

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 22.05%
Profit Margins 12.33%
Return on Equity 11.28%
Return on Assets 5.87%
Free Float 1.22B
Dividend Yield 3.16%
Short Int % Utilisation 1.83%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth -5.3%
Free Cash Flow 5.29B
EBITDA 6.98 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 163.06B
EV/Revenue 2.75
EV/EBITDA 6.98

Revenue growth of -5.3% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 44.30%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 30.55%
1-Year Price Return* 37.40%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $126.78
52-Week Range $85.57 – $135.87
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $58.94B $54.74B
Net income Reported net income $7.96B $9.22B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $121.94B $122.78B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $64.49B $64.80B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 13.51% 16.84%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4834x 0.4459x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.8909x 1.8949x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 12.35% 14.23%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $58.94B
Prior annual revenue $54.74B
EBIT $13.89B
Tax rate 36.90%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $8.76B
Forecast start-growth basis 7.67%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $8.76B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $11.50B
Less: capital expenditure -$12.55B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$76.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $7.63B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 7.67% $9.44B $12.38B -$13.52B -$81.83M $8.22B $8.02B
2 6.38% $10.04B $13.17B -$14.08B -$87.05M $9.05B $8.39B
3 5.09% $10.55B $13.84B -$14.48B -$91.47M $9.82B $8.67B
4 3.79% $10.95B $14.37B -$14.70B -$94.94M $10.52B $8.84B
5 2.50% $11.22B $14.73B -$14.73B -$97.32M $11.12B $8.89B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.12
Cost of equity 5.39%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.16%
WACC 5.11%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $436.32B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 13.42x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 88.82%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $42.81B
Present value of terminal value $340.03B
Indicated enterprise value $382.84B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $382.84B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $23.44B
Add: cash and equivalents $6.98B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $366.38B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,253,446,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $129.84
DCF indicative value per share $292.30
Indicative value vs. market price 125.12%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:27:56.281043 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -1.74% -3.25%
Adjusted R² 0.12 0.11
Annualised residual volatility 28.28% 28.27%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.01 (-0.06) -0.05 (-0.24)
Size (SMB) -0.12 (-0.54) -0.11 (-0.45)
Value (HML) 0.96 (4.95) 1.01 (4.23)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.04 (-0.21)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.11 (-0.31)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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