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CTVA — Corteva

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 23.69%
Profit Margins 6.5%
Return on Equity 5.14%
Return on Assets 4.33%
Free Float 0.67B
Dividend Yield 0.88%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.18%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 11.0%
Free Cash Flow 2.58B
EBITDA 12.42 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 51.43B
EV/Revenue 2.88
EV/EBITDA 12.42

Revenue growth of 11.0% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 12.03%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 26.92%
1-Year Price Return* 7.89%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $76.68
52-Week Range $60.53 – $90.97
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $17.40B $16.91B
Net income Reported net income $1.09B $907.00M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $42.84B $40.83B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $24.14B $23.79B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 6.29% 5.36%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4061x 0.4142x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.7746x 1.7161x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 4.53% 3.81%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $17.40B
Prior annual revenue $16.91B
EBIT $1.87B
Tax rate 28.67%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.33B
Forecast start-growth basis 2.92%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.33B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $1.20B
Less: capital expenditure -$591.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $541.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $2.49B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 2.92% $1.37B $1.24B -$608.23M $556.77M $2.56B $2.46B
2 2.81% $1.41B $1.27B -$787.22M $572.43M $2.47B $2.21B
3 2.71% $1.45B $1.31B -$974.81M $587.93M $2.37B $1.97B
4 2.60% $1.49B $1.34B -$1.17B $603.24M $2.26B $1.74B
5 2.50% $1.52B $1.37B -$1.37B $618.32M $2.14B $1.53B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.57
Cost of equity 7.84%
Pre-tax cost of debt 6.81%
WACC 7.70%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $42.20B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 12.02x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 74.60%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $9.92B
Present value of terminal value $29.12B
Indicated enterprise value $39.04B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $39.04B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $2.58B
Add: cash and equivalents $4.53B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $242.00M
Indicated common equity value $40.75B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 681,400,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $77.80
DCF indicative value per share $59.80
Indicative value vs. market price -23.13%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:29:00.887195 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 2.61% -1.29%
Adjusted R² 0.07 0.08
Annualised residual volatility 23.07% 22.94%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.34 (2.51) 0.27 (1.74)
Size (SMB) 0.33 (1.80) 0.24 (1.21)
Value (HML) 0.41 (2.59) 0.37 (1.93)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.24 (-1.44)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.21 (0.75)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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