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DAL — Delta Air Lines

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 3.18%
Profit Margins 6.87%
Return on Equity 24.99%
Return on Assets 4.34%
Free Float 0.65B
Dividend Yield 0.84%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.72%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 12.9%
Free Cash Flow 3.09B
EBITDA 8.53 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 66.31B
EV/Revenue 1.02
EV/EBITDA 8.53

Revenue growth of 12.9% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 62.32%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 39.30%
1-Year Price Return* 49.95%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $89.35
52-Week Range $55.03 – $95.68
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $63.36B $61.64B
Net income Reported net income $5.00B $3.46B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $81.32B $75.37B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $20.85B $15.29B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 7.90% 5.61%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.7792x 0.8179x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.8995x 4.9285x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 24.00% 22.61%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $63.36B
Prior annual revenue $61.64B
EBIT $6.86B
Tax rate 19.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $5.55B
Forecast start-growth basis 2.79%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $5.55B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $2.44B
Less: capital expenditure -$4.50B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $1.54B
Current unlevered FCFF $5.03B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 2.79% $5.71B $2.51B -$4.62B $1.58B $5.17B $4.94B
2 2.72% $5.86B $2.58B -$4.21B $1.62B $5.86B $5.11B
3 2.65% $6.02B $2.65B -$3.76B $1.66B $6.57B $5.24B
4 2.57% $6.17B $2.72B -$3.29B $1.71B $7.31B $5.33B
5 2.50% $6.33B $2.78B -$2.78B $1.75B $8.08B $5.38B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.31
Cost of equity 11.92%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.15%
WACC 9.46%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $119.00B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 11.22x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 74.44%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $26.01B
Present value of terminal value $75.74B
Indicated enterprise value $101.75B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $101.75B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $20.27B
Add: cash and equivalents $4.31B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $85.78B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 654,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $86.37
DCF indicative value per share $131.16
Indicative value vs. market price 51.86%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:29:23.671725 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 11.74% 10.22%
Adjusted R² 0.43 0.43
Annualised residual volatility 30.16% 30.10%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.61 (9.10) 1.60 (7.83)
Size (SMB) 1.27 (5.29) 1.19 (4.60)
Value (HML) 0.40 (1.92) 0.32 (1.26)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.13 (-0.62)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.26 (0.70)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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