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US Equities · Finance research note

DECK — Deckers Brands

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 14.0%
Profit Margins 18.71%
Return on Equity 40.86%
Return on Assets 21.75%
Free Float 0.14B
Short Int % Utilisation 4.92%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 9.6%
Free Cash Flow 0.86B
EBITDA 10.39 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 13.91B
EV/Revenue 2.54
EV/EBITDA 10.39

Revenue growth of 9.6% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -0.23%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 44.87%
1-Year Price Return* -9.59%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $93.09
52-Week Range $78.91 – $125.45
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $5.47B $4.99B
Net income Reported net income $1.02B $966.09M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $3.69B $3.57B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $2.50B $2.51B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 18.71% 19.38%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.4839x 1.3964x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.4753x 1.4207x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 40.97% 38.44%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $5.47B
Prior annual revenue $4.99B
EBIT $1.33B
Tax rate 22.80%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.03B
Forecast start-growth basis 9.76%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.03B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $75.77M
Less: capital expenditure -$84.62M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $18.59M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.04B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 9.76% $1.13B $83.17M -$92.88M $20.41M $1.14B $1.08B
2 7.95% $1.22B $89.78M -$97.64M $22.03M $1.23B $1.05B
3 6.13% $1.29B $95.28M -$100.85M $23.38M $1.31B $1.01B
4 4.32% $1.35B $99.39M -$102.30M $24.39M $1.37B $954.24M
5 2.50% $1.38B $101.88M -$101.88M $25.00M $1.40B $884.46M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.17
Cost of equity 11.13%
Pre-tax cost of debt 0.78%
WACC 10.82%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $17.30B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 9.16x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 67.49%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $4.98B
Present value of terminal value $10.35B
Indicated enterprise value $15.33B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $15.33B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $375.19M
Add: cash and equivalents $1.91B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $16.87B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 145,805,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $91.02
DCF indicative value per share $115.67
Indicative value vs. market price 27.08%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:29:42.848987 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-03-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -26.23% 1.05%
Adjusted R² 0.13 0.24
Annualised residual volatility 42.28% 39.32%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.03 (4.16) 1.74 (6.53)
Size (SMB) 0.80 (2.37) 0.61 (1.81)
Value (HML) 0.35 (1.19) -0.62 (-1.86)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.94 (3.33)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.88 (3.84)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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