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US Equities · Finance research note

DHI — D. R. Horton

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 11.26%
Profit Margins 9.51%
Return on Equity 13.08%
Return on Assets 7.3%
Free Float 0.25B
Dividend Yield 1.08%
Short Int % Utilisation 5.95%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth -2.3%
Free Cash Flow 2.88B
EBITDA 10.99 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 46.9B
EV/Revenue 1.41
EV/EBITDA 10.99

Revenue growth of -2.3% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -3.23%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 35.70%
1-Year Price Return* -9.07%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $148.81
52-Week Range $131.75 – $184.55
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $34.25B $36.80B
Net income Reported net income $3.59B $4.76B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $35.47B $36.10B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $24.19B $25.31B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 10.47% 12.92%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.9656x 1.0193x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.4663x 1.4263x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 14.82% 18.79%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $34.25B
Prior annual revenue $36.80B
EBIT $4.42B
Tax rate 23.60%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $3.38B
Forecast start-growth basis -6.93%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $3.38B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $101.30M
Less: capital expenditure -$137.40M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$713.60M
Current unlevered FCFF $2.63B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -6.93% $3.15B $94.28M -$127.88M -$664.13M $2.45B $2.32B
2 -4.57% $3.00B $89.97M -$114.01M -$633.76M $2.34B $1.99B
3 -2.22% $2.94B $87.97M -$103.65M -$619.71M $2.30B $1.75B
4 0.14% $2.94B $88.10M -$95.95M -$620.59M $2.31B $1.58B
5 2.50% $3.01B $90.30M -$90.30M -$636.11M $2.38B $1.46B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.38
Cost of equity 12.27%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 11.45%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $27.21B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 6.74x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 63.47%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $9.11B
Present value of terminal value $15.82B
Indicated enterprise value $24.92B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $24.92B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $6.03B
Add: cash and equivalents $2.99B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $551.80M
Indicated common equity value $21.33B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 309,900,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $146.30
DCF indicative value per share $68.82
Indicative value vs. market price -52.96%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:30:00.786312 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-09-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -29.75% -12.18%
Adjusted R² 0.30 0.41
Annualised residual volatility 29.73% 27.15%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.86 (4.94) 1.38 (7.49)
Size (SMB) 1.29 (5.44) 1.06 (4.55)
Value (HML) 0.66 (3.26) -0.15 (-0.64)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.57 (2.91)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.70 (5.03)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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