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DVN — Devon Energy

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 6.86%
Profit Margins 14.17%
Return on Equity 15.18%
Return on Assets 6.07%
Free Float 0.62B
Dividend Yield 2.44%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.48%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth -0.8%
Free Cash Flow 1.6B
EBITDA 5.34 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 35.9B
EV/Revenue 2.24
EV/EBITDA 5.34

Revenue growth of -0.8% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 48.65%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 34.69%
1-Year Price Return* 39.63%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $45.85
52-Week Range $31.47 – $52.71
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $17.19B $15.94B
Net income Reported net income $2.64B $2.89B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $31.60B $30.49B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $15.53B $14.50B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 15.37% 18.14%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.5439x 0.5228x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.0350x 2.1033x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 17.01% 19.94%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $17.19B
Prior annual revenue $15.94B
EBIT $3.96B
Tax rate 23.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $3.05B
Forecast start-growth basis 7.83%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $3.05B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $3.60B
Less: capital expenditure -$3.91B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $151.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $2.88B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 7.83% $3.29B $3.88B -$4.22B $162.82M $3.11B $3.01B
2 6.50% $3.50B $4.13B -$4.40B $173.40M $3.40B $3.09B
3 5.16% $3.69B $4.34B -$4.53B $182.36M $3.67B $3.13B
4 3.83% $3.83B $4.51B -$4.61B $189.35M $3.92B $3.13B
5 2.50% $3.92B $4.62B -$4.62B $194.08M $4.12B $3.08B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.42
Cost of equity 7.02%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.59%
WACC 6.64%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $101.99B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.50x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 82.73%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $15.44B
Present value of terminal value $73.96B
Indicated enterprise value $89.40B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $89.40B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $8.59B
Add: cash and equivalents $1.43B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $82.25B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 633,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $47.99
DCF indicative value per share $129.94
Indicative value vs. market price 170.79%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:30:58.266978 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 7.62% 5.40%
Adjusted R² 0.14 0.13
Annualised residual volatility 31.67% 31.65%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.02 (0.12) -0.02 (-0.09)
Size (SMB) -0.06 (-0.22) -0.08 (-0.30)
Value (HML) 1.16 (5.35) 1.17 (4.37)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.10 (-0.45)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.03 (0.07)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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