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US Equities · Finance research note

EXE — Expand Energy

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 34.04%
Profit Margins 24.91%
Return on Equity 17.57%
Return on Assets 9.67%
Free Float 0.24B
Dividend Yield 3.61%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.6%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 41.0%
Free Cash Flow 1.7B
EBITDA 3.24 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 24.03B
EV/Revenue 1.85
EV/EBITDA 3.24

Revenue growth of 41.0% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 6.91%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 31.10%
1-Year Price Return* 1.88%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $94.78
52-Week Range $84.98 – $126.62
Observation Count 250 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $12.19B $4.22B
Net income Reported net income $1.82B $-714.00M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $28.29B $27.89B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $18.58B $17.57B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 14.92% -16.92%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4309x 0.1513x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.5226x 1.5880x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 9.79% -4.06%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $12.19B
Prior annual revenue $4.22B
EBIT $2.52B
Tax rate 20.30%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.01B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.01B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $2.98B
Less: capital expenditure -$2.93B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$285.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.77B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $2.31B $3.43B -$3.37B -$327.75M $2.04B $1.98B
2 11.88% $2.58B $3.83B -$3.79B -$366.67M $2.26B $2.07B
3 8.75% $2.81B $4.17B -$4.14B -$398.75M $2.44B $2.12B
4 5.62% $2.96B $4.40B -$4.39B -$421.18M $2.56B $2.09B
5 2.50% $3.04B $4.51B -$4.51B -$431.71M $2.61B $2.01B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.32
Cost of equity 6.47%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.35%
WACC 5.92%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $78.10B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 9.38x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 85.08%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $10.27B
Present value of terminal value $58.58B
Indicated enterprise value $68.86B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $68.86B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $5.06B
Add: cash and equivalents $616.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $64.41B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 240,370,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $95.30
DCF indicative value per share $267.97
Indicative value vs. market price 181.18%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:32:47.467558 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -12.67% -19.19%
Adjusted R² 0.04 0.04
Annualised residual volatility 30.29% 30.10%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.34 (1.92) 0.18 (0.90)
Size (SMB) -0.46 (-1.89) -0.51 (-1.97)
Value (HML) 0.66 (3.18) 0.76 (2.99)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.34 (-1.56)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.08 (-0.20)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

us-equitystockequityexeenergyoil--gas-exploration--productionnasdaq