US Equities Analysis

EXPD — Expeditors International

Research evidence pack

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 10.59%
Profit Margins 7.47%
Return on Equity 36.64%
Return on Assets 14.17%
Free Float 0.13B
Dividend Yield 1.01%
Short Int % Utilisation 4.83%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 4.4%
Free Cash Flow 0.78B
EBITDA 18.28 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 20.79B
EV/Revenue 1.86
EV/EBITDA 18.28

Revenue growth of 4.4% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 65.21%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 30.97%
1-Year Price Return* 56.90%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $186.12
52-Week Range $112.95 – $189.87
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $11.07B
Prior annual revenue $10.60B
EBIT $1.05B
Tax rate 25.80%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $780.99M
Forecast start-growth basis 4.42%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $780.99M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $56.77M
Less: capital expenditure -$53.10M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $63.41M
Current unlevered FCFF $848.07M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 4.42% $815.51M $59.28M -$55.45M $66.22M $885.55M $843.00M
2 3.94% $847.63M $61.61M -$58.63M $68.83M $919.44M $793.16M
3 3.46% $876.96M $63.74M -$61.69M $71.21M $950.23M $742.82M
4 2.98% $903.09M $65.64M -$64.58M $73.33M $977.48M $692.45M
5 2.50% $925.67M $67.29M -$67.29M $75.16M $1.00B $642.49M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.04
Cost of equity 10.46%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 10.35%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $13.07B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 9.94x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 68.25%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.71B
Present value of terminal value $7.98B
Indicated enterprise value $11.70B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $11.70B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $570.59M
Add: cash and equivalents $1.31B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $2.46M
Indicated common equity value $12.44B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 136,249,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $187.47
DCF indicative value per share $91.30
Indicative value vs. market price -51.30%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:32:51.247335 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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