US Equities Analysis

EXPE — Expedia Group

Research evidence pack

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 7.09%
Profit Margins 9.81%
Return on Equity 71.49%
Return on Assets 5.83%
Free Float 0.11B
Dividend Yield 0.67%
Short Int % Utilisation 8.36%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 14.7%
Free Cash Flow 3.48B
EBITDA 10.19 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 26.45B
EV/Revenue 1.74
EV/EBITDA 10.19

Revenue growth of 14.7% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 82.49%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 48.78%
1-Year Price Return* 61.64%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $332.69
52-Week Range $185.34 – $333.24
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $14.73B
Prior annual revenue $13.69B
EBIT $1.89B
Tax rate 18.20%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.55B
Forecast start-growth basis 7.61%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.55B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $887.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$770.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $1.17B
Current unlevered FCFF $2.84B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 7.61% $1.66B $954.51M -$828.60M $1.26B $3.05B $2.90B
2 6.33% $1.77B $1.01B -$914.55M $1.34B $3.21B $2.77B
3 5.06% $1.86B $1.07B -$995.95M $1.41B $3.34B $2.60B
4 3.78% $1.93B $1.11B -$1.07B $1.46B $3.43B $2.42B
5 2.50% $1.98B $1.13B -$1.13B $1.50B $3.48B $2.22B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.25
Cost of equity 11.56%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.62%
WACC 10.46%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $44.75B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 12.60x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 67.81%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $12.92B
Present value of terminal value $27.20B
Indicated enterprise value $40.12B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $40.12B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $6.42B
Add: cash and equivalents $5.73B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $1.26B
Indicated common equity value $38.17B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 131,943,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $324.73
DCF indicative value per share $289.32
Indicative value vs. market price -10.90%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:32:54.759838 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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