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FOXA — Fox Corporation (Class A)

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 21.36%
Profit Margins 10.56%
Return on Equity 15.2%
Return on Assets 8.71%
Free Float 0.33B
Dividend Yield 1.15%
Short Int % Utilisation 16.07%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth -8.6%
Free Cash Flow 1.41B
EBITDA 9.22 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 32.74B
EV/Revenue 2.02
EV/EBITDA 9.22

Revenue growth of -8.6% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 27.52%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 35.42%
1-Year Price Return* 19.43%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $69.04
52-Week Range $48.34 – $76.39
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $17.13B $16.30B
Net income Reported net income $1.69B $2.26B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $22.48B $23.20B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $11.63B $11.96B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 9.84% 13.88%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.7618x 0.7027x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.9334x 1.9391x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 14.49% 18.92%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $17.13B
Prior annual revenue $16.30B
EBIT $2.68B
Tax rate 24.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.04B
Forecast start-growth basis 5.07%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.04B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $410.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$502.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$1.55B
Current unlevered FCFF $398.04M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 5.07% $2.14B $430.78M -$527.44M -$1.62B $418.21M $404.40M
2 4.43% $2.23B $449.84M -$525.55M -$1.70B $461.95M $417.67M
3 3.78% $2.32B $466.86M -$519.24M -$1.76B $505.62M $427.46M
4 3.14% $2.39B $481.53M -$508.54M -$1.82B $548.52M $433.60M
5 2.50% $2.45B $493.57M -$493.57M -$1.86B $589.92M $436.03M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.54
Cost of equity 7.69%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.33%
WACC 6.95%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $13.59B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 3.66x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 82.09%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $2.12B
Present value of terminal value $9.72B
Indicated enterprise value $11.83B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $11.83B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $7.57B
Add: cash and equivalents $4.21B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $186.00M
Indicated common equity value $8.29B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 439,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $70.56
DCF indicative value per share $18.87
Indicative value vs. market price -73.25%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:34:04.837909 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-06-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -13.98% -6.38%
Adjusted R² 0.03 0.03
Annualised residual volatility 34.26% 34.05%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.05 (0.23) 0.22 (0.94)
Size (SMB) 0.75 (2.77) 0.83 (2.82)
Value (HML) -0.01 (-0.04) -0.11 (-0.37)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.38 (1.56)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.03 (0.08)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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