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US Equities · Finance research note

HD — Home Depot (The)

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 11.93%
Profit Margins 8.41%
Return on Equity 128.38%
Return on Assets 12.52%
Free Float 1.0B
Dividend Yield 2.67%
Short Int % Utilisation 1.34%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 4.8%
Free Cash Flow 10.13B
EBITDA 15.24 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 380.13B
EV/Revenue 2.28
EV/EBITDA 15.24

Revenue growth of 4.8% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -10.14%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 25.50%
1-Year Price Return* -12.90%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $338.86
52-Week Range $289.10 – $426.75
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $164.68B $159.51B
Net income Reported net income $14.16B $14.81B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $105.09B $96.12B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $12.81B $6.64B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 8.60% 9.28%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.5670x 1.6595x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 8.2022x 14.4758x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 110.48% 222.98%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $164.68B
Prior annual revenue $159.51B
EBIT $21.01B
Tax rate 23.90%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $15.99B
Forecast start-growth basis 3.24%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $15.99B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $4.12B
Less: capital expenditure -$3.68B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$2.67B
Current unlevered FCFF $13.77B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 3.24% $16.51B $4.25B -$3.80B -$2.75B $14.21B $13.62B
2 3.06% $17.01B $4.38B -$4.03B -$2.84B $14.53B $12.80B
3 2.87% $17.50B $4.51B -$4.27B -$2.92B $14.83B $12.00B
4 2.69% $17.97B $4.63B -$4.51B -$3.00B $15.10B $11.23B
5 2.50% $18.42B $4.75B -$4.75B -$3.07B $15.35B $10.49B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.96
Cost of equity 9.99%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.78%
WACC 8.84%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $248.36B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.58x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 73.01%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $60.14B
Present value of terminal value $162.64B
Indicated enterprise value $222.78B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $222.78B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $65.35B
Add: cash and equivalents $1.39B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $158.81B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 995,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $339.30
DCF indicative value per share $159.61
Indicative value vs. market price -52.96%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:36:15.380527 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-01-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -28.70% -9.65%
Adjusted R² 0.22 0.42
Annualised residual volatility 22.12% 19.05%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.68 (5.22) 1.20 (9.31)
Size (SMB) 0.66 (3.73) 0.56 (3.44)
Value (HML) 0.36 (2.35) -0.31 (-1.90)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.76 (5.52)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.23 (5.20)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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