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US Equities · Finance research note

HII — Huntington Ingalls Industries

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 6.55%
Profit Margins 4.71%
Return on Equity 12.2%
Return on Assets 4.1%
Free Float 0.04B
Dividend Yield 1.96%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.54%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 13.4%
Free Cash Flow 0.63B
EBITDA 12.44 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 14.11B
EV/Revenue 1.1
EV/EBITDA 12.44

Revenue growth of 13.4% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 35.25%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 38.39%
1-Year Price Return* 25.16%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $327.71
52-Week Range $262.66 – $460.00
Observation Count 248 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $12.48B $11.54B
Net income Reported net income $605.00M $550.00M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $12.75B $12.14B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $5.07B $4.67B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 4.85% 4.77%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.9792x 0.9501x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.5131x 2.6020x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 11.93% 11.79%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $12.48B
Prior annual revenue $11.54B
EBIT $882.00M
Tax rate 22.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $687.08M
Forecast start-growth basis 8.23%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $687.08M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $329.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$402.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $16.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $630.08M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 8.23% $743.60M $356.07M -$435.07M $17.32M $681.92M $664.24M
2 6.80% $794.14M $380.26M -$443.54M $18.49M $749.35M $692.59M
3 5.36% $836.73M $400.66M -$445.11M $19.48M $811.76M $711.90M
4 3.93% $869.63M $416.41M -$439.51M $20.25M $866.78M $721.26M
5 2.50% $891.37M $426.82M -$426.82M $20.76M $912.13M $720.17M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.24
Cost of equity 6.04%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.32%
WACC 5.39%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $32.34B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 20.58x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 87.63%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.51B
Present value of terminal value $24.87B
Indicated enterprise value $28.38B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $28.38B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $2.92B
Add: cash and equivalents $774.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $26.23B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 39,300,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $322.23
DCF indicative value per share $667.45
Indicative value vs. market price 107.14%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:36:24.123285 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -3.95% -8.54%
Adjusted R² 0.10 0.10
Annualised residual volatility 33.66% 33.58%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.61 (3.09) 0.51 (2.26)
Size (SMB) 0.70 (2.62) 0.66 (2.28)
Value (HML) -0.11 (-0.47) -0.06 (-0.20)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.22 (-0.93)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.01 (-0.02)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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