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HWM — Howmet Aerospace

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 28.19%
Profit Margins 20.23%
Return on Equity 33.82%
Return on Assets 11.92%
Free Float 0.4B
Dividend Yield 19.0%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.22%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 19.1%
Free Cash Flow 1.19B
EBITDA 39.92 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 102.24B
EV/Revenue 11.86
EV/EBITDA 39.92

Revenue growth of 19.1% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 77.99%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 30.66%
1-Year Price Return* 69.22%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $289.18
52-Week Range $169.45 – $310.00
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $8.25B $7.43B
Net income Reported net income $1.51B $1.15B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $11.18B $10.52B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $5.35B $4.55B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 18.25% 15.52%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.7382x 0.7063x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.0884x 2.3098x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 28.13% 25.32%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $8.25B
Prior annual revenue $7.43B
EBIT $1.99B
Tax rate 18.04%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.63B
Forecast start-growth basis 11.06%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.63B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $283.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$453.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$98.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.36B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 11.06% $1.81B $314.31M -$503.12M -$108.84M $1.51B $1.44B
2 8.92% $1.97B $342.35M -$496.59M -$118.55M $1.70B $1.45B
3 6.78% $2.11B $365.57M -$475.37M -$126.59M $1.87B $1.44B
4 4.64% $2.21B $382.54M -$439.98M -$132.47M $2.02B $1.39B
5 2.50% $2.26B $392.10M -$392.10M -$135.78M $2.13B $1.32B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.21
Cost of equity 11.38%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.52%
WACC 11.17%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $25.13B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.97x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 67.78%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $7.04B
Present value of terminal value $14.80B
Indicated enterprise value $21.83B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $21.83B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $3.21B
Add: cash and equivalents $742.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $19.36B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 406,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $287.71
DCF indicative value per share $47.69
Indicative value vs. market price -83.42%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:37:14.619712 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 40.90% 45.08%
Adjusted R² 0.19 0.19
Annualised residual volatility 28.00% 27.96%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.03 (6.24) 1.10 (5.79)
Size (SMB) 0.16 (0.73) 0.13 (0.54)
Value (HML) 0.02 (0.11) -0.09 (-0.38)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.07 (0.35)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.24 (0.68)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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