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US Equities · Finance research note

IR — Ingersoll Rand

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 17.07%
Profit Margins 7.54%
Return on Equity 5.72%
Return on Assets 5.12%
Free Float 0.39B
Dividend Yield 11.0%
Short Int % Utilisation 4.38%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 7.6%
Free Cash Flow 1.04B
EBITDA 15.48 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 31.31B
EV/Revenue 4.02
EV/EBITDA 15.48

Revenue growth of 7.6% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 12.49%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 32.98%
1-Year Price Return* 6.52%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $83.34
52-Week Range $68.07 – $100.96
Observation Count 250 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $7.65B $7.24B
Net income Reported net income $581.40M $838.60M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $18.30B $18.01B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $10.09B $10.18B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 7.60% 11.59%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4181x 0.4017x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.8134x 1.7693x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 5.76% 8.24%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $7.65B
Prior annual revenue $7.24B
EBIT $1.19B
Tax rate 23.50%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $909.74M
Forecast start-growth basis 5.75%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $909.74M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $505.80M
Less: capital expenditure -$135.60M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$159.30M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.12B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 5.75% $962.03M $534.88M -$143.39M -$168.46M $1.19B $1.13B
2 4.94% $1.01B $561.28M -$253.17M -$176.77M $1.14B $986.83M
3 4.12% $1.05B $584.43M -$370.55M -$184.06M $1.08B $848.85M
4 3.31% $1.09B $603.78M -$493.31M -$190.16M $1.01B $717.38M
5 2.50% $1.11B $618.88M -$618.88M -$194.91M $918.21M $594.25M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.16
Cost of equity 11.10%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.25%
WACC 10.15%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $12.30B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 5.93x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 63.94%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $4.28B
Present value of terminal value $7.58B
Indicated enterprise value $11.86B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $11.86B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $4.85B
Add: cash and equivalents $1.25B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $64.20M
Indicated common equity value $8.20B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 401,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $81.08
DCF indicative value per share $20.44
Indicative value vs. market price -74.79%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:38:08.850124 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -31.94% -20.94%
Adjusted R² 0.44 0.49
Annualised residual volatility 24.34% 23.17%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.37 (9.60) 1.71 (10.90)
Size (SMB) 0.86 (4.45) 0.77 (3.86)
Value (HML) 0.82 (4.93) 0.35 (1.81)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.44 (2.65)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.92 (3.19)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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