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ISRG — Intuitive Surgical

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Free Float 0.35B
Short Int % Utilisation 2.21%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
EV/EBITDA 35.62

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -12.25%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 36.76%
1-Year Price Return* -17.85%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $394.51
52-Week Range $328.57 – $603.88
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $10.06B $8.35B
Net income Reported net income $2.86B $2.32B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $20.46B $18.74B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $17.82B $16.43B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 28.38% 27.81%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4920x 0.4456x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.1478x 1.1405x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 16.02% 14.13%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $10.06B
Prior annual revenue $8.35B
EBIT $2.95B
Tax rate 13.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.56B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.56B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $677.10M
Less: capital expenditure -$539.80M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$1.27B
Current unlevered FCFF $1.42B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $2.94B $778.66M -$620.77M -$1.46B $1.64B $1.54B
2 11.88% $3.29B $871.13M -$738.65M -$1.64B $1.79B $1.49B
3 8.75% $3.58B $947.36M -$851.30M -$1.78B $1.90B $1.41B
4 5.62% $3.78B $1.00B -$949.92M -$1.88B $1.95B $1.28B
5 2.50% $3.88B $1.03B -$1.03B -$1.93B $1.95B $1.14B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.46
Cost of equity 12.74%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 12.74%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $19.52B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 3.56x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 60.95%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $6.86B
Present value of terminal value $10.71B
Indicated enterprise value $17.58B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $17.58B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $0.00
Add: cash and equivalents $5.93B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $117.70M
Indicated common equity value $23.39B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 362,700,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $397.15
DCF indicative value per share $64.50
Indicative value vs. market price -83.76%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:38:17.180735 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -29.05% -18.80%
Adjusted R² 0.11 0.14
Annualised residual volatility 30.07% 29.48%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.83 (4.69) 1.11 (5.55)
Size (SMB) 0.08 (0.34) 0.16 (0.64)
Value (HML) -0.03 (-0.13) -0.23 (-0.91)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.57 (2.70)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.19 (0.51)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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