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US Equities · Finance research note

KMI — Kinder Morgan

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 29.91%
Profit Margins 18.92%
Return on Equity 10.6%
Return on Assets 4.32%
Free Float 1.93B
Dividend Yield 3.54%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.31%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 13.8%
Free Cash Flow 1.65B
EBITDA 14.02 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 104.23B
EV/Revenue 5.95
EV/EBITDA 14.02

Revenue growth of 13.8% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 30.82%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 19.90%
1-Year Price Return* 28.01%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $32.82
52-Week Range $25.60 – $34.81
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $16.94B $15.10B
Net income Reported net income $3.04B $2.60B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $72.75B $71.41B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $31.16B $30.53B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 17.95% 17.21%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.2328x 0.2115x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.3345x 2.3388x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 9.76% 8.51%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $16.94B
Prior annual revenue $15.10B
EBIT $4.72B
Tax rate 20.80%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $3.74B
Forecast start-growth basis 12.17%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $3.74B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $2.45B
Less: capital expenditure -$3.03B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$108.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $3.06B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 12.17% $4.20B $2.75B -$3.39B -$121.14M $3.43B $3.31B
2 9.75% $4.61B $3.02B -$3.55B -$132.95M $3.94B $3.55B
3 7.33% $4.94B $3.24B -$3.62B -$142.70M $4.42B $3.71B
4 4.92% $5.19B $3.40B -$3.60B -$149.71M $4.84B $3.79B
5 2.50% $5.32B $3.49B -$3.49B -$153.46M $5.16B $3.77B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.55
Cost of equity 7.76%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 7.26%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $111.20B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.90x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 81.21%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $18.13B
Present value of terminal value $78.33B
Indicated enterprise value $96.46B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $96.46B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $31.78B
Add: cash and equivalents $63.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $1.29B
Indicated common equity value $63.45B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 2,223,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $32.85
DCF indicative value per share $28.54
Indicative value vs. market price -13.11%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:39:36.254725 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 19.23% 18.45%
Adjusted R² 0.03 0.02
Annualised residual volatility 19.57% 19.57%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.00 (0.01) -0.01 (-0.09)
Size (SMB) 0.14 (0.91) 0.14 (0.84)
Value (HML) 0.30 (2.22) 0.31 (1.88)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.02 (-0.18)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.02 (-0.08)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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