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US Equities · Finance research note

LII — Lennox International

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 14.32%
Profit Margins 15.09%
Return on Equity 76.79%
Return on Assets 16.74%
Free Float 0.03B
Dividend Yield 0.96%
Short Int % Utilisation 9.53%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 5.8%
Free Cash Flow 0.19B
EBITDA 16.88 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 19.47B
EV/Revenue 3.7
EV/EBITDA 16.88

Revenue growth of 5.8% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -21.35%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 41.48%
1-Year Price Return* -27.92%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $422.01
52-Week Range $411.41 – $616.50
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $5.20B $5.34B
Net income Reported net income $805.80M $811.10M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $4.08B $3.62B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $1.16B $962.10M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 15.51% 15.19%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.2728x 1.4755x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 3.5094x 3.7626x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 69.28% 84.31%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $5.20B
Prior annual revenue $5.34B
EBIT $1.04B
Tax rate 19.20%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $842.91M
Forecast start-growth basis -2.73%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $842.91M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $112.50M
Less: capital expenditure -$118.80M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$212.20M
Current unlevered FCFF $624.41M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -2.73% $819.87M $109.42M -$115.55M -$206.40M $607.34M $578.27M
2 -1.43% $808.18M $107.87M -$112.40M -$203.46M $600.19M $518.06M
3 -0.12% $807.24M $107.74M -$110.76M -$203.22M $601.00M $470.28M
4 1.19% $816.86M $109.02M -$110.55M -$205.64M $609.69M $432.50M
5 2.50% $837.28M $111.75M -$111.75M -$210.78M $626.50M $402.89M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.20
Cost of equity 11.31%
Pre-tax cost of debt 2.85%
WACC 10.31%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $8.22B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.16x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 67.71%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $2.40B
Present value of terminal value $5.04B
Indicated enterprise value $7.44B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $7.44B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $1.77B
Add: cash and equivalents $34.70M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $5.70B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 35,400,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $410.74
DCF indicative value per share $161.07
Indicative value vs. market price -60.78%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:40:12.967564 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -30.31% -18.82%
Adjusted R² 0.26 0.36
Annualised residual volatility 31.11% 28.96%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.31 (7.16) 1.69 (8.61)
Size (SMB) 0.60 (2.44) 0.26 (1.03)
Value (HML) 0.48 (2.24) -0.34 (-1.37)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.18 (0.89)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.91 (5.30)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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