US Equities Analysis

LLY — Lilly (Eli)

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

Loading verified snapshot
Loading verified market, valuation, and statement data.

2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 49.39%
Profit Margins 34.99%
Return on Equity 107.46%
Return on Assets 20.74%
Free Float 0.89B
Dividend Yield 0.57%
Short Int % Utilisation 1.1%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 55.5%
Free Cash Flow 9.16B
EBITDA 29.03 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 1051.44B
EV/Revenue 14.55
EV/EBITDA 29.03

Revenue growth of 55.5% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 81.01%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 35.65%
1-Year Price Return* 69.36%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $1,180.16
52-Week Range $685.15 – $1,249.45
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $65.18B
Prior annual revenue $45.04B
EBIT $29.70B
Tax rate 19.79%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $23.82B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $23.82B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $2.00B
Less: capital expenditure -$10.85B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$8.09B
Current unlevered FCFF $6.88B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $27.39B $2.30B -$12.48B -$9.31B $7.91B $7.63B
2 11.88% $30.65B $2.57B -$11.11B -$10.41B $11.69B $10.50B
3 8.75% $33.33B $2.79B -$8.99B -$11.32B $15.81B $13.21B
4 5.62% $35.20B $2.95B -$6.22B -$11.96B $19.97B $15.53B
5 2.50% $36.08B $3.03B -$3.03B -$12.26B $23.82B $17.24B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.51
Cost of equity 7.49%
Pre-tax cost of debt 7.71%
WACC 7.45%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $493.77B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.29x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 84.32%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $64.12B
Present value of terminal value $344.81B
Indicated enterprise value $408.93B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $408.93B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $42.50B
Add: cash and equivalents $7.27B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $373.69B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 899,300,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $1,213.45
DCF indicative value per share $415.54
Indicative value vs. market price -65.76%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:40:24.228999 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

us-equity stock equity lly health-care pharmaceuticals nasdaq