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US Equities · Finance research note

LMT — Lockheed Martin

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 11.0%
Profit Margins 6.38%
Return on Equity 67.64%
Return on Assets 7.23%
Free Float 0.2B
Dividend Yield 2.72%
Short Int % Utilisation 1.37%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 0.3%
Free Cash Flow 3.99B
EBITDA 17.49 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 139.85B
EV/Revenue 1.86
EV/EBITDA 17.49

Revenue growth of 0.3% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 48.66%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 27.40%
1-Year Price Return* 42.86%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $608.68
52-Week Range $436.46 – $692.00
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $75.05B $71.04B
Net income Reported net income $5.02B $5.34B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $59.84B $55.62B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $6.72B $6.33B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 6.69% 7.51%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.2541x 1.2774x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 8.9034x 8.7821x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 74.65% 84.26%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $75.05B
Prior annual revenue $71.04B
EBIT $7.04B
Tax rate 15.28%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $5.96B
Forecast start-growth basis 5.64%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $5.96B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $1.69B
Less: capital expenditure -$1.65B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $186.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $6.19B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 5.64% $6.30B $1.78B -$1.74B $196.49M $6.54B $6.37B
2 4.85% $6.61B $1.87B -$1.84B $206.02M $6.84B $6.34B
3 4.07% $6.87B $1.94B -$1.92B $214.40M $7.11B $6.26B
4 3.28% $7.10B $2.01B -$2.00B $221.45M $7.33B $6.14B
5 2.50% $7.28B $2.06B -$2.06B $226.98M $7.51B $5.97B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.11
Cost of equity 5.32%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.33%
WACC 5.21%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $283.88B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 26.66x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 87.63%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $31.09B
Present value of terminal value $220.21B
Indicated enterprise value $251.30B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $251.30B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $21.70B
Add: cash and equivalents $4.12B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $233.72B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 233,500,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $611.60
DCF indicative value per share $1,000.96
Indicative value vs. market price 63.66%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:40:28.908962 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 17.06% 15.70%
Adjusted R² 0.01 0.00
Annualised residual volatility 25.22% 25.21%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.05 (0.31) 0.02 (0.13)
Size (SMB) 0.40 (2.01) 0.39 (1.81)
Value (HML) -0.04 (-0.24) -0.03 (-0.13)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.05 (-0.29)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.00 (-0.01)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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