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MCHP — Microchip Technology

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 17.07%
Profit Margins 4.88%
Return on Equity 3.4%
Return on Assets 2.23%
Free Float 0.53B
Dividend Yield 2.07%
Short Int % Utilisation 7.04%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 35.1%
Free Cash Flow 1.14B
EBITDA 43.52 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 53.06B
EV/Revenue 11.26
EV/EBITDA 43.52

Revenue growth of 35.1% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 40.13%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 50.02%
1-Year Price Return* 23.75%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $79.17
52-Week Range $48.52 – $105.91
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $4.71B $4.40B
Net income Reported net income $118.80M $-2.70M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $14.37B $15.37B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $6.43B $7.08B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 2.52% -0.06%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.3280x 0.2863x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.2340x 2.1721x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 1.85% -0.04%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $4.71B
Prior annual revenue $4.40B
EBIT $488.90M
Tax rate 15.90%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $411.14M
Forecast start-growth basis 7.08%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $411.14M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $689.30M
Less: capital expenditure -$91.10M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$167.70M
Current unlevered FCFF $841.64M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 7.08% $440.24M $738.08M -$97.55M -$179.57M $901.20M $847.81M
2 5.93% $466.36M $781.87M -$272.97M -$190.22M $785.04M $653.60M
3 4.79% $488.69M $819.31M -$463.80M -$199.33M $644.87M $475.17M
4 3.64% $506.50M $849.17M -$664.93M -$206.59M $484.14M $315.71M
5 2.50% $519.16M $870.40M -$870.40M -$211.76M $307.40M $177.41M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.74
Cost of equity 14.29%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.85%
WACC 12.99%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $3.00B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 2.02x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 39.76%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $2.47B
Present value of terminal value $1.63B
Indicated enterprise value $4.10B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $4.10B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $5.54B
Add: cash and equivalents $240.30M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value -$1.19B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 545,200,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $76.50
DCF indicative value per share -$2.19
Indicative value vs. market price -102.86%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration review required
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 2/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 3/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:41:23.496035 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-03-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -2.13% -13.84%
Adjusted R² 0.32 0.36
Annualised residual volatility 38.67% 37.23%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 2.19 (9.63) 1.98 (7.86)
Size (SMB) -0.08 (-0.26) -0.53 (-1.66)
Value (HML) 0.90 (3.41) 0.59 (1.86)
Profitability (RMW) NM -0.94 (-3.50)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.29 (2.78)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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