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US Equities · Finance research note

MCK — McKesson Corporation

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 2.21%
Profit Margins 1.18%
Return on Assets 4.99%
Free Float 0.12B
Dividend Yield 0.43%
Short Int % Utilisation 4.36%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 6.0%
Free Cash Flow 5.66B
EBITDA 14.7 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 101.16B
EV/Revenue 0.25
EV/EBITDA 14.7

Revenue growth of 6.0% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 36.11%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 31.05%
1-Year Price Return* 29.64%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $869.00
52-Week Range $667.50 – $999.00
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $403.43B $359.05B
Net income Reported net income $4.76B $3.29B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $82.32B $75.14B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $-2.17B $-2.07B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 1.18% 0.92%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 4.9006x 4.7784x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity -37.9019x -36.2295x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -219.24% -158.87%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $403.43B
Prior annual revenue $359.05B
EBIT $6.45B
Tax rate 17.80%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $5.30B
Forecast start-growth basis 12.36%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $5.30B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $729.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$745.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$57.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $5.23B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 12.36% $5.96B $819.11M -$837.08M -$64.05M $5.87B $5.70B
2 9.90% $6.54B $900.16M -$914.97M -$70.38M $6.46B $5.91B
3 7.43% $7.03B $967.04M -$977.65M -$75.61M $6.94B $5.99B
4 4.97% $7.38B $1.02B -$1.02B -$79.37M $7.30B $5.93B
5 2.50% $7.56B $1.04B -$1.04B -$81.35M $7.48B $5.73B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.31
Cost of equity 6.40%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.09%
WACC 6.10%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $213.00B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 20.80x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 84.41%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $29.26B
Present value of terminal value $158.41B
Indicated enterprise value $187.68B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $187.68B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $8.61B
Add: cash and equivalents $3.98B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $1.34B
Indicated common equity value $181.70B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 124,100,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $879.08
DCF indicative value per share $1,464.14
Indicative value vs. market price 66.55%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:41:27.038098 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-03-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 13.89% 33.73%
Adjusted R² -0.00 0.05
Annualised residual volatility 30.00% 29.10%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.14 (-0.78) 0.19 (0.94)
Size (SMB) 0.02 (0.08) 0.18 (0.71)
Value (HML) 0.19 (0.92) 0.04 (0.15)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.75 (3.58)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.03 (-0.07)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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