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MLM — Martin Marietta Materials

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 12.7%
Profit Margins 39.91%
Return on Equity 9.47%
Return on Assets 4.78%
Free Float 0.06B
Dividend Yield 0.54%
Short Int % Utilisation 4.21%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 17.2%
Free Cash Flow 0.84B
EBITDA 18.3 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 38.61B
EV/Revenue 6.08
EV/EBITDA 18.3

Revenue growth of 17.2% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -6.16%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 27.73%
1-Year Price Return* -9.63%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $547.93
52-Week Range $523.48 – $710.97
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $6.15B $5.66B
Net income Reported net income $1.14B $2.00B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $18.71B $18.17B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $10.03B $9.45B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 18.49% 35.23%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.3287x 0.3116x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.8651x 1.9221x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 11.33% 21.10%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $6.15B
Prior annual revenue $5.66B
EBIT $1.46B
Tax rate 19.20%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.18B
Forecast start-growth basis 8.62%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.18B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $637.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$807.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$92.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $914.45M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 8.62% $1.28B $691.90M -$876.55M -$99.93M $993.26M $948.60M
2 7.09% $1.37B $740.95M -$889.26M -$107.01M $1.11B $969.62M
3 5.56% $1.44B $782.14M -$886.51M -$112.96M $1.23B $975.02M
4 4.03% $1.50B $813.66M -$867.95M -$117.51M $1.33B $964.49M
5 2.50% $1.54B $834.00M -$834.00M -$120.45M $1.42B $938.48M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.11
Cost of equity 10.79%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.00%
WACC 9.64%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $20.39B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.44x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 72.85%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $4.80B
Present value of terminal value $12.87B
Indicated enterprise value $17.67B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $17.67B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $5.71B
Add: cash and equivalents $67.00M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $2.00M
Indicated common equity value $12.03B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 60,600,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $525.47
DCF indicative value per share $198.48
Indicative value vs. market price -62.23%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:41:57.873051 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -26.44% -19.52%
Adjusted R² 0.24 0.26
Annualised residual volatility 23.27% 22.90%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.87 (6.36) 1.07 (6.87)
Size (SMB) 0.54 (2.90) 0.52 (2.64)
Value (HML) 0.40 (2.53) 0.18 (0.91)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.31 (1.87)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.39 (1.39)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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