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US Equities · Finance research note

MO — Altria

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 62.29%
Profit Margins 39.52%
Return on Assets 27.61%
Free Float 1.67B
Dividend Yield 5.75%
Short Int % Utilisation 3.15%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 5.3%
Free Cash Flow 8.54B
EBITDA 9.07 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 143.24B
EV/Revenue 7.03
EV/EBITDA 9.07

Revenue growth of 5.3% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 10.15%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 25.34%
1-Year Price Return* 6.59%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $65.70
52-Week Range $54.70 – $77.06
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $20.14B $20.44B
Net income Reported net income $6.93B $11.24B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $35.02B $35.18B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $-3.50B $-2.24B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 34.40% 54.96%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.5751x 0.5812x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity -9.9991x -15.7181x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -197.80% -502.06%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $20.14B
Prior annual revenue $20.44B
EBIT $10.57B
Tax rate 26.01%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $7.82B
Forecast start-growth basis -1.49%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $7.82B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $266.00M
Less: capital expenditure -$216.00M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement $76.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $7.94B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -1.49% $7.70B $262.03M -$212.78M $74.87M $7.83B $7.58B
2 -0.49% $7.66B $260.74M -$223.98M $74.50M $7.77B $7.06B
3 0.50% $7.70B $262.05M -$237.42M $74.87M $7.80B $6.64B
4 1.50% $7.82B $265.99M -$253.49M $76.00M $7.91B $6.31B
5 2.50% $8.01B $272.64M -$272.64M $77.90M $8.09B $6.05B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.49
Cost of equity 7.43%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.65%
WACC 6.67%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $198.94B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 17.92x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 81.07%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $33.63B
Present value of terminal value $144.06B
Indicated enterprise value $177.69B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $177.69B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $25.71B
Add: cash and equivalents $4.47B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $50.00M
Indicated common equity value $156.40B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,683,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $64.92
DCF indicative value per share $92.93
Indicative value vs. market price 43.16%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:42:11.035608 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 15.59% 31.55%
Adjusted R² 0.06 0.12
Annualised residual volatility 22.74% 21.89%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) -0.30 (-2.26) -0.02 (-0.11)
Size (SMB) 0.09 (0.52) 0.04 (0.23)
Value (HML) 0.31 (1.99) -0.05 (-0.27)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.41 (2.64)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.67 (2.46)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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