US Equities Analysis

MOS — Mosaic Company (The)

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 0.79%
Profit Margins 0.36%
Return on Equity 0.59%
Return on Assets 2.0%
Free Float 0.32B
Dividend Yield 3.93%
Short Int % Utilisation 8.71%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 14.4%
Free Cash Flow -0.29B
EBITDA 5.99 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 11.93B
EV/Revenue 0.96
EV/EBITDA 5.99

Revenue growth of 14.4% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -24.40%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 43.80%
1-Year Price Return* -31.11%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $21.61
52-Week Range $19.80 – $36.99
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $12.05B
Prior annual revenue $11.12B
EBIT $1.45B
Tax rate 21.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.15B
Forecast start-growth basis 8.36%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.15B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $1.05B
Less: capital expenditure -$1.36B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$961.30M
Current unlevered FCFF -$121.82M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 8.36% $1.25B $1.14B -$1.47B -$1.04B -$132.01M -$127.67M
2 6.89% $1.33B $1.22B -$1.48B -$1.11B -$51.48M -$46.58M
3 5.43% $1.40B $1.28B -$1.47B -$1.17B $40.21M $34.03M
4 3.96% $1.46B $1.33B -$1.43B -$1.22B $140.03M $110.86M
5 2.50% $1.50B $1.37B -$1.37B -$1.25B $244.22M $180.85M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.82
Cost of equity 9.23%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.96%
WACC 6.90%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $5.68B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 1.74x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 96.41%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $151.49M
Present value of terminal value $4.07B
Indicated enterprise value $4.22B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $4.22B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $5.28B
Add: cash and equivalents $276.60M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $149.30M
Indicated common equity value -$929.08M

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 318,900,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $21.31
DCF indicative value per share -$2.91
Indicative value vs. market price -113.67%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration review required
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 1/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 2/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:42:15.966299 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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