US Equities Analysis

MPC — Marathon Petroleum

Research evidence pack

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 3.56%
Profit Margins 3.41%
Return on Equity 27.46%
Return on Assets 5.15%
Free Float 0.29B
Dividend Yield 1.54%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.5%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 8.8%
Free Cash Flow 3.52B
EBITDA 11.28 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 115.71B
EV/Revenue 0.85
EV/EBITDA 11.28

Revenue growth of 8.8% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 138.04%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 34.18%
1-Year Price Return* 123.22%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $355.42
52-Week Range $160.87 – $360.10
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $132.70B
Prior annual revenue $138.86B
EBIT $8.43B
Tax rate 16.20%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $7.06B
Forecast start-growth basis -4.44%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $7.06B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $3.25B
Less: capital expenditure -$3.49B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$469.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $6.36B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -4.44% $6.75B $3.11B -$3.33B -$448.18M $6.08B $5.88B
2 -2.70% $6.57B $3.02B -$3.19B -$436.06M $5.97B $5.42B
3 -0.97% $6.50B $2.99B -$3.10B -$431.83M $5.96B $5.08B
4 0.77% $6.55B $3.02B -$3.07B -$435.13M $6.06B $4.85B
5 2.50% $6.72B $3.09B -$3.09B -$446.01M $6.27B $4.70B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.51
Cost of equity 7.51%
Pre-tax cost of debt 4.47%
WACC 6.59%
WACC validation requires assumption review

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $157.17B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 14.15x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 81.49%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $25.94B
Present value of terminal value $114.24B
Indicated enterprise value $140.19B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $140.19B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $34.36B
Add: cash and equivalents $3.67B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $6.77B
Indicated common equity value $102.73B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 306,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $364.27
DCF indicative value per share $335.71
Indicative value vs. market price -7.84%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range review required
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% within review band

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:42:20.676988 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

us-equity stock equity mpc energy oil--gas-refining--marketing nasdaq