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US Equities · Finance research note

MSFT — Microsoft

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 46.33%
Profit Margins 39.34%
Return on Equity 34.01%
Return on Assets 14.81%
Free Float 7.42B
Dividend Yield 0.98%
Short Int % Utilisation 1.19%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 18.3%
Free Cash Flow 37.01B
EBITDA 16.26 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 2998.97B
EV/Revenue 9.42
EV/EBITDA 16.26

Revenue growth of 18.3% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 0.97%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 32.20%
1-Year Price Return* -4.00%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $495.40
52-Week Range $349.20 – $553.72
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2026 FY2025
Revenue Reported revenue $331.84B $281.72B
Net income Reported net income $133.75B $101.83B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $758.38B $619.00B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $442.39B $343.48B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 40.31% 36.15%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.4376x 0.4551x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.7143x 1.8022x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 30.23% 29.65%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $331.84B
Prior annual revenue $281.72B
EBIT $168.99B
Tax rate 19.40%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $136.20B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $136.20B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $38.53B
Less: capital expenditure -$115.95B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$4.89B
Current unlevered FCFF $53.89B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $156.63B $44.31B -$133.34B -$5.63B $61.98B $58.92B
2 11.88% $175.23B $49.58B -$124.27B -$6.30B $94.24B $80.96B
3 8.75% $190.57B $53.91B -$108.07B -$6.85B $129.56B $100.59B
4 5.62% $201.28B $56.95B -$85.55B -$7.23B $165.45B $116.09B
5 2.50% $206.32B $58.37B -$58.37B -$7.41B $198.90B $126.12B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.10
Cost of equity 10.76%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.20%
WACC 10.65%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $2,500.35B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 7.95x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 75.74%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $482.68B
Present value of terminal value $1,507.19B
Indicated enterprise value $1,989.87B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $1,989.87B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $56.83B
Add: cash and equivalents $76.65B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $2,009.69B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 7,453,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $481.88
DCF indicative value per share $269.65
Indicative value vs. market price -44.04%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:42:48.350271 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2026-06-30 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -24.64% -24.00%
Adjusted R² 0.27 0.29
Annualised residual volatility 23.80% 23.33%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.60 (4.30) 0.59 (3.72)
Size (SMB) -0.33 (-1.74) -0.12 (-0.58)
Value (HML) -0.82 (-5.04) -0.55 (-2.81)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.26 (1.52)
Investment (CMA) NM -0.80 (-2.75)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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