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US Equities · Finance research note

MTD — Mettler Toledo

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 23.29%
Profit Margins 21.4%
Return on Assets 20.57%
Free Float 0.02B
Short Int % Utilisation 3.89%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 7.2%
Free Cash Flow 0.62B
EBITDA 20.59 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 25.06B
EV/Revenue 6.13
EV/EBITDA 20.59

Revenue growth of 7.2% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 14.04%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 32.18%
1-Year Price Return* 8.13%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $1,419.02
52-Week Range $1,023.05 – $1,525.17
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $4.03B $3.87B
Net income Reported net income $869.19M $863.14M
Total assets Year-end reported balance $3.71B $3.24B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $-23.64M $-126.89M
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 21.59% 22.29%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.0845x 1.1952x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity -157.0759x -25.5339x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier -3677.41% -680.23%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $4.03B
Prior annual revenue $3.87B
EBIT $1.12B
Tax rate 17.10%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $926.34M
Forecast start-growth basis 3.98%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $926.34M
Add: depreciation & amortisation $125.61M
Less: capital expenditure -$107.12M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$65.33M
Current unlevered FCFF $879.50M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 3.98% $963.19M $130.61M -$111.39M -$67.93M $914.49M $868.68M
2 3.61% $997.95M $135.32M -$120.38M -$70.38M $942.51M $807.86M
3 3.24% $1.03B $139.70M -$129.42M -$72.66M $967.89M $748.59M
4 2.87% $1.06B $143.71M -$138.42M -$74.74M $990.38M $691.17M
5 2.50% $1.09B $147.30M -$147.30M -$76.61M $1.01B $635.84M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.22
Cost of equity 11.44%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.29%
WACC 10.82%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $12.43B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 8.53x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 66.47%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.75B
Present value of terminal value $7.44B
Indicated enterprise value $11.19B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $11.19B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $2.15B
Add: cash and equivalents $66.89M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $9.10B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 20,671,708.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $1,402.73
DCF indicative value per share $440.42
Indicative value vs. market price -68.60%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:43:00.466518 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -18.62% -2.53%
Adjusted R² 0.18 0.27
Annualised residual volatility 29.61% 27.87%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.75 (4.31) 1.17 (6.18)
Size (SMB) 0.88 (3.75) 0.69 (2.86)
Value (HML) -0.01 (-0.05) -0.69 (-2.91)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.44 (2.21)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.43 (4.14)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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