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US Equities · Finance research note

NEM — Newmont

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 61.38%
Profit Margins 33.87%
Return on Equity 25.83%
Return on Assets 14.89%
Free Float 1.07B
Dividend Yield 1.09%
Short Int % Utilisation 2.06%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 45.8%
Free Cash Flow 9.8B
EBITDA 5.87 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 95.96B
EV/Revenue 3.84
EV/EBITDA 5.87

Revenue growth of 45.8% places the company in a high-growth category.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 94.18%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 48.69%
1-Year Price Return* 71.66%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $117.76
52-Week Range $67.20 – $134.88
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $22.67B $18.68B
Net income Reported net income $7.08B $3.35B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $57.12B $56.35B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $33.87B $29.93B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 31.25% 17.92%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.3969x 0.3315x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.6866x 1.8828x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 20.92% 11.19%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $22.67B
Prior annual revenue $18.68B
EBIT $11.57B
Tax rate 40.00%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $6.94B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $6.94B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $2.52B
Less: capital expenditure -$3.04B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$210.00M
Current unlevered FCFF $6.22B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $7.98B $2.90B -$3.49B -$241.50M $7.15B $6.91B
2 11.88% $8.93B $3.24B -$3.74B -$270.18M $8.17B $7.36B
3 8.75% $9.71B $3.53B -$3.89B -$293.82M $9.06B $7.61B
4 5.62% $10.26B $3.73B -$3.92B -$310.35M $9.76B $7.65B
5 2.50% $10.52B $3.82B -$3.82B -$318.10M $10.20B $7.45B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.50
Cost of equity 7.46%
Pre-tax cost of debt 3.15%
WACC 7.22%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $221.49B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 10.38x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 80.87%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $36.97B
Present value of terminal value $156.31B
Indicated enterprise value $193.28B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $193.28B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $5.59B
Add: cash and equivalents $8.24B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $175.00M
Indicated common equity value $195.76B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 1,108,000,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $116.63
DCF indicative value per share $176.68
Indicative value vs. market price 51.49%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 4/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:43:25.079532 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 24.08% 2.60%
Adjusted R² 0.17 0.20
Annualised residual volatility 44.65% 43.55%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.50 (5.71) 1.14 (3.86)
Size (SMB) 0.13 (0.36) -0.19 (-0.50)
Value (HML) -0.08 (-0.27) -0.08 (-0.22)
Profitability (RMW) NM -1.02 (-3.27)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.54 (1.00)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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