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NFLX — Netflix

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Evidence and analysis

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2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 32.3%
Profit Margins 28.52%
Return on Equity 48.49%
Return on Assets 15.4%
Free Float 4.18B
Short Int % Utilisation 2.43%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 16.2%
Free Cash Flow 25.99B
EBITDA 24.49 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 349.9B
EV/Revenue 7.46
EV/EBITDA 24.49

Revenue growth of 16.2% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -33.14%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 35.19%
1-Year Price Return* -36.91%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $78.16
52-Week Range $65.08 – $126.71
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $45.18B $39.00B
Net income Reported net income $10.98B $8.71B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $55.60B $53.63B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $26.62B $24.74B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 24.30% 22.34%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 0.8127x 0.7272x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 2.0889x 2.1674x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 41.26% 35.21%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $45.18B
Prior annual revenue $39.00B
EBIT $13.50B
Tax rate 13.70%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $11.65B
Forecast start-growth basis 15.00%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $11.65B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $16.76B
Less: capital expenditure -$688.22M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$456.22M
Current unlevered FCFF $27.26B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 15.00% $13.40B $19.27B -$791.45M -$524.65M $31.35B $29.53B
2 11.88% $14.99B $21.56B -$6.05B -$586.96M $29.90B $25.00B
3 8.75% $16.30B $23.44B -$12.20B -$638.31M $26.90B $19.96B
4 5.62% $17.22B $24.76B -$18.83B -$674.22M $22.48B $14.80B
5 2.50% $17.65B $25.38B -$25.38B -$691.07M $16.96B $9.91B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.51
Cost of equity 13.04%
Pre-tax cost of debt 5.17%
WACC 12.68%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $170.80B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 3.73x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 48.66%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $99.21B
Present value of terminal value $94.05B
Indicated enterprise value $193.26B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $193.26B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $14.46B
Add: cash and equivalents $9.06B
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $187.86B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 4,343,863,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $78.44
DCF indicative value per share $43.25
Indicative value vs. market price -44.87%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration review required
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:43:28.607240 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha -41.31% -36.88%
Adjusted R² 0.05 0.05
Annualised residual volatility 33.78% 33.61%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 0.22 (1.08) 0.37 (1.64)
Size (SMB) -0.43 (-1.60) -0.45 (-1.54)
Value (HML) -0.48 (-2.08) -0.67 (-2.35)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.24 (1.01)
Investment (CMA) NM 0.34 (0.80)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

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