Checking your sign-in status…

Private workspace

Finance

Research, portfolio tools, and market analysis in one place.

Finance home
Back to US Equities

US Equities · Finance research note

ODFL — Old Dominion

Research and analysis only
View analysis Browse US Equities

Evidence and analysis

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

Loading verified snapshot
Loading verified market, valuation, and statement data.

2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 23.78%
Profit Margins 18.46%
Return on Equity 23.33%
Return on Assets 15.03%
Free Float 0.19B
Dividend Yield 0.53%
Short Int % Utilisation 6.18%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth -2.9%
Free Cash Flow 0.86B
EBITDA 28.58 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 48.82B
EV/Revenue 8.95
EV/EBITDA 28.58

Revenue growth of -2.9% suggests mature or challenged top-line momentum.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* 51.49%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 38.28%
1-Year Price Return* 40.50%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $210.97
52-Week Range $126.01 – $252.03
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

DuPont Model Analysis

The DuPont model decomposes return on equity (ROE) into three operating and capital-structure drivers:

ROE = Net Margin × Asset Turnover × Equity Multiplier

The comparison uses the latest two comparable annual periods available for the issuer, with reported statement amounts shown in US$. Revenue and net income are income-statement flows; total assets and shareholders’ equity are year-end balance-sheet figures. This is a simplified year-end-balance DuPont comparison rather than an average-balance ROE calculation.

DuPont component Calculation FY2025 FY2024
Revenue Reported revenue $5.50B $5.81B
Net income Reported net income $1.02B $1.19B
Total assets Year-end reported balance $5.47B $5.49B
Shareholders’ equity Year-end reported balance $4.31B $4.24B
Net margin Net income ÷ revenue 18.63% 20.40%
Asset turnover Revenue ÷ total assets 1.0048x 1.0589x
Equity multiplier Total assets ÷ shareholders’ equity 1.2689x 1.2937x
ROE Net margin × asset turnover × equity multiplier 23.75% 27.94%

Source: Yahoo Finance annual statements. Values are based on the two latest comparable annual periods returned by the source; fiscal period labels use the statement period-end year.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $5.50B
Prior annual revenue $5.81B
EBIT $1.36B
Tax rate 24.80%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $1.02B
Forecast start-growth basis -5.48%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $1.02B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $364.69M
Less: capital expenditure -$415.03M
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$40.46M
Current unlevered FCFF $933.13M

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 -5.48% $967.86M $344.72M -$392.31M -$38.24M $882.03M $836.52M
2 -3.48% $934.15M $332.72M -$367.16M -$36.91M $862.80M $736.03M
3 -1.49% $920.25M $327.77M -$350.39M -$36.36M $861.27M $660.87M
4 0.51% $924.91M $329.42M -$340.79M -$36.55M $877.00M $605.29M
5 2.50% $948.03M $337.66M -$337.66M -$37.46M $910.57M $565.29M

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 1.18
Cost of equity 11.19%
Pre-tax cost of debt 0.59%
WACC 11.18%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $10.76B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 6.73x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 65.04%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $3.40B
Present value of terminal value $6.33B
Indicated enterprise value $9.74B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $9.74B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $39.99M
Add: cash and equivalents $120.09M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $9.82B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 211,598,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $208.39
DCF indicative value per share $46.40
Indicative value vs. market price -77.73%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:44:30.200070 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

2.7 Quantitative Factor Diagnostics

Model basis: Daily issuer USD excess returns are regressed in-sample using ordinary least squares on matching regional Fama–French factors. FF3 estimates market, size, and value loadings; FF5 adds profitability and investment. Coefficients are descriptive historical exposures, not predictions.

Estimation input Value
Regional factor set US
Factor-return currency USD
Issuer-return basis USD adjusted total return
Estimation window 2025-08-19 to 2026-06-30
Aligned daily observations 217
Minimum observation requirement 120
Currency conversion for HK listings not required

Fama–French Three-Factor and Five-Factor Results

Diagnostic FF3 FF5
Annualised alpha 1.09% 25.54%
Adjusted R² 0.30 0.39
Annualised residual volatility 32.46% 30.27%
Factor loading (t-statistic) FF3 FF5
Market excess return (Mkt-RF) 1.24 (6.49) 1.74 (8.47)
Size (SMB) 1.01 (3.92) 0.80 (3.07)
Value (HML) 0.94 (4.21) 0.16 (0.61)
Profitability (RMW) NM 0.56 (2.56)
Investment (CMA) NM 1.63 (4.33)

Definitions: Mkt-RF is the market return less the risk-free rate; SMB is small minus big; HML is high minus low book-to-market; RMW is robust minus weak profitability; CMA is conservative minus aggressive investment. Factor returns are sourced from the Kenneth R. French Data Library; issuer adjusted-return history is sourced from Yahoo Finance. For Hong Kong listings, adjusted HKD prices are converted into USD with daily USD/HKD closes before return calculation to match the USD regional factor basis. This is an in-sample historical regression; coefficients and t-statistics do not establish causation or predict future returns. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

us-equitystockequityodflindustrialscargo-ground-transportationnasdaq