US Equities Analysis

ORLY — O’Reilly Automotive

Research evidence pack

Source-backed valuation visuals

Loading verified snapshot
Loading verified market, valuation, and statement data.

2. Company Fundamentals

2.1 Competitiveness

Metric Value
Operating Margins 18.45%
Profit Margins 14.3%
Return on Assets 13.81%
Free Float 0.82B
Short Int % Utilisation 2.52%

2.2 Growth

Metric Value
Revenue Growth 10.2%
Free Cash Flow 1.33B
EBITDA 20.43 (Ratio)
Enterprise Value 83.44B
EV/Revenue 4.58
EV/EBITDA 20.43

Revenue growth of 10.2% indicates steady, moderate expansion.

2.3 Management

Role Metric
Consensus Rating N/A

2.4 Return

Metric Value
Expected Return (Ann.)* -7.45%
Risk / Std Dev (Ann.)* 25.56%
1-Year Price Return* -10.33%

Latest Market Data (as of 2026-08-14, US Eastern time):

Metric Value
Last Price $91.05
52-Week Range $82.59 – $108.72
Observation Count 251 trading days

The return and risk statistics use daily adjusted closes from the retrieved one-year series and annualise daily moments using 252 trading days. The last price is the latest regular-market price reported for the stated date. Source: Yahoo Finance market data.

2.5 FCFF DCF Valuation

Valuation basis: This research model follows a five-year, unlevered FCFF DCF. It starts from reported annual operating inputs, forecasts revenue and operating cash conversion under an explicit mechanical policy, discounts FCFF at WACC, applies a Gordon-growth terminal value, and bridges enterprise value to an indicative common-equity value per share. It is an analytical estimate rather than a recommendation or personalised target price.

Step 1 — Forecast Operating Profit and NOPAT

Reported operating input Value
Revenue $17.78B
Prior annual revenue $16.71B
EBIT $3.48B
Tax rate 21.70%
NOPAT = EBIT × (1 − tax rate) $2.72B
Forecast start-growth basis 6.42%
Forecast policy latest reported annual revenue growth, bounded to -10.00% / 15.00%

Step 2 — Calculate FCFF

Current FCFF building block Value
NOPAT $2.72B
Add: depreciation & amortisation $511.23M
Less: capital expenditure -$1.17B
Less/(add): working-capital cash-flow movement -$303.46M
Current unlevered FCFF $1.76B

Explicit FCFF forecast

Forecast year Revenue growth NOPAT D&A Capex Change in NWC FCFF Present value
1 6.42% $2.90B $544.08M -$1.24B -$322.96M $1.87B $1.81B
2 5.44% $3.05B $573.69M -$1.13B -$340.54M $2.16B $1.95B
3 4.46% $3.19B $599.30M -$984.73M -$355.74M $2.45B $2.07B
4 3.48% $3.30B $620.16M -$819.58M -$368.12M $2.73B $2.16B
5 2.50% $3.38B $635.66M -$635.66M -$377.33M $3.01B $2.22B

Step 3 — Determine the Discount Rate (WACC)

WACC input Value
Risk-free rate 4.71%
Equity risk premium assumption 5.50%
Beta 0.52
Cost of equity 7.57%
Pre-tax cost of debt 2.86%
WACC 7.02%
WACC validation within standard range

Step 4 — Estimate Terminal Value

Terminal-value input Value
Perpetuity growth rate 2.50%
Terminal value $68.17B
Implied terminal EV / EBITDA 13.75x
Terminal value as % of enterprise value 82.64%

Step 5 — Discount Cash Flows to Enterprise Value

Enterprise-value component Value
Present value of explicit FCFF $10.20B
Present value of terminal value $48.56B
Indicated enterprise value $58.76B
Discounting convention mid-year for explicit FCFF; terminal value discounted at year-end five

Step 6 — Convert Enterprise Value to Equity Value

Equity bridge Value
Indicated enterprise value $58.76B
Less: gross interest-bearing debt $8.49B
Add: cash and equivalents $193.79M
Add: affiliate investments $0.00
Less: minority interests $0.00
Indicated common equity value $50.46B

Step 7 — Calculate Indicative Value Per Share

Per-share output Value
Shares used 855,919,000.00
Share-count basis reported diluted weighted-average shares
Current market price $91.70
DCF indicative value per share $58.96
Indicative value vs. market price -35.71%

Model Integrity Checks

Check Result
Perpetuity growth is below the risk-free rate pass
Perpetuity growth is below WACC pass
WACC is within the configured operating-company range pass
Terminal-year FCFF is positive pass
Terminal capex converges to D&A pass
Terminal-value concentration within review band
Implied price differs from spot by more than 30% review required

2.6 Investor-Style Research Screen

Educational screen Result
Buffett-inspired cash-quality checks 3/4 evidenced checks
Lynch-inspired balance-and-growth checks 4/4 evidenced checks

Data lineage: Yahoo Finance public market and reported-statement data; retrieval timestamp: 2026-08-18 17:44:49.479481 UTC; latest reported fiscal period: 2025-12-31 00:00:00. Default assumptions: five-year forecast, mid-year discounting for explicit FCFF, a maximum 2.50% perpetuity-growth rate below both WACC and the risk-free rate, historical operating-ratio persistence, and capex convergence to D&A by year five. No sell-side consensus or management guidance is substituted for reported inputs. This is research and analysis only, not personalized financial advice.

us-equity stock equity orly consumer-discretionary automotive-retail nasdaq